NFL Week 6: Mixing up your picks
This week I am back with two more slight underdogs, and I think there is value once again on these two. Let’s see if we can mix up our sports picks by adding a parlay with a ton of value. Any time you parlay together two slight underdogs, you are increasing value without adding much risk.
Cam Newton and the Panthers take their up and down show on the road this week, and into Minneapolis, where they will likely meet Matt Cassel and the Vikings. Minnesota just signed Josh Freeman, but there has been no indication that he will start this game, and even if he did, this wouldn’t change my pick on this game. The Vikings have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. They are giving up about 30 points per game, their secondary is no where to be found, and the only thing they have going for them on either side of the ball is Adrian Peterson.
On the other side you have the Panthers, who are #1 in total defense so far this season, however they’ve only played four games instead of five. Either way, Carolina’s defense is one of the most underrated units in all of football. Their front seven is going to give even the Vikings offensive line some trouble, and they are one of the best in football. If Dwan Edwards returns for this game, it will make it even harder for Minnesota.
It all comes down to Cam Newton against the Vikings’ poor pass defense. If Newton can find some of his accuracy this week, the Panthers are going to win this game. At +125 in the NFL Odds boards, it also makes them have some value here.
The Lions’ hand was shown last week against the Packers, and I don’t know if they can recover from it. Calvin Johnson was a late scratch on Sunday, leaving the Lions with literally, no passing game. Now they go on the road into Cleveland, and even if Johnson is back, Joe Haden Island awaits his return. Haden is one of, if not the best cornerback in the entire NFL, and if Johnson is not 100%, it spells trouble for the Lions’ offense.
Detroit’s defense is already not that great, and even with Brandon Weeden throwing the ball, if he can get the ball out quickly against the Lions’ pass rush, Cleveland can win at home this week as slight underdogs. The Browns’ offensive line is very good, and we have already seen that Cleveland can move the ball, and keep opposing offenses from doing the same.
As long as the Browns don’t turn the ball over, they will be fine. If Megatron is less than 100%, or missing altogether, the Browns can also focus on stopping Reggie Bush. The Packers were very successful at doing just that this past week when Johnson missed.
The Sharp Pick
At nearly +400, a 2-team parlay with the Panthers and Browns should net a nice return rate this week, and I’m taking a bite. While the Panthers are on the road, the Browns get to play at home, and either way, we cashed with two road teams last week, and one of them lost their starting quarterback half way through the game. This should be a great way to mix up our NFL Picks this week.
My Pick: 2-team parlay: Panthers +125 & Browns +120 (+395)