NFL Mixing up your Week 4 picks
This week I am focusing on the same type of parlay, two teams who are slight underdogs, either on the road, or at home.
A normal 2-team parlay with -110 odds pays out at +240, however utilizing a two-team parlay with money lines is a great way to boost value without taking on too much extra risk. Take for instance this week. The two money lines I have chosen are both spreads of 2 points or less, so the NFL Odds of an upset are already high. Let’s mix up our NFL Picks with another parlay this week, and see if we can have similar results to last week.
Bears vs. Lions
Although they aren’t a home underdog, I think the Bears are showing some nice value this week on the road in Detroit as a money line underdog. The Bears are definitely the better team, and even though they are much improved, the Lions have traditionally been overvalued over the last 20 games or so.
Chicago’s defense should hold down the Lions’ offense enough to get the road win here. We just saw Chicago man handle the Steelers on the road this past week, and Detroit is not much better (if at all) than the Steelers. Although their pass rush is great, the rest of the Detroit defense is not that good, and I think the Bears should be able to beat it.
The Bears are 9-1 SU in their last ten meetings overall with the Lions, and Chicago is 4-1 SU in their last five trips to Detroit. I am taking the Bears’ moneyline as the first leg of this parlay.
Check the Week 4 NFL Odds here~
Cowboys vs. Chargers
The Chargers are home underdogs of +2 in the NFL Odds this week, and against a Cowboys team that just got a huge blowout win over the Rams, Dallas could be overvalued in this spot. It happens all the time. The Cowboys will get a huge win, the next week they are favored, and they end up crapping the bed the week after a big win.
The Chargers’ defense almost always gets better when they come home for a game. Fourteen of their last 21 home games have gone under the total because of it. With an already undervalued team, and an undervalued defense as well, San Diego could beat out the Cowboys in this one. Look what happened two weeks ago against the Chiefs in Kansas City. Dallas got a big win in Week 1, then came out and lost to Kansas City. The Cowboys are two different teams when they play on the road as opposed to at home. Dallas is getting right back into the trend they were in a year ago, where they play one good week and then one bad one.
As long as Phillip Rivers can not turn the ball over in this game, and the Chargers can play solid defense, I see San Diego getting the win in this one, which makes them a great addition as a home underdog to my NFL parlay this week.