NFL Picks: Miami Dolphins Team Profile 2015

LT Profits Sports Group

Wednesday, July 22, 2015 5:01 PM GMT

Each day until the start of the 2015 NFL season, LT Profits will provide a team profile that can be referred to when making NFL picks. Today they look at the Miami Dolphins.

 


The 2015 NFL season commences on Thursday night, September 10th, and in an attempt to help you with your NFL picks, we are presenting daily team profiles well in advance of the beginning of the season. Today we are profiling the Miami Dolphins, who finished 8-8 in 2014 and in third place in the AFC East.

To kick things off, he is a summary of the Miami betting statistics over the past five seasons. Take note that these stats are for regular season games only.

 

Miami Dolphins Betting Stats, 2010 through 2014

   Home  Away  Overall
ATS Overall  18-21-1    22-18    40-39-1  
ATS Favorite  9-15-1  5-4  14-19-1
ATS Underdog  8-6  17-14  25-20
Avg. Margin  -0.3  -1.7  -1.0
Over – Under  17-21-2  14-26   31-47-2   
Avg. Total Score    42.1  39.6  40.8

 

A couple of noteworthy angles here are the Dolphins unreliability as home favorites with just a 37.5 percent success rate in that role, as well as their penchant for playing low scoring games, especially on the road where the ‘under’ has hit at a 65.0 percent rate the last five years.
Key Trend: The ‘under’ is 18-7-1, 72.0 percent when Miami is a conference favorite

Next we take a look at the Dolphins’ statistical summary for the 2014 season.

 

2014 Miami Dolphins Team Statistics (Per Game)

   Offense    Off. Rank   Defense    Def. Rank 
Points  24.2  11th  23.3  19th
Rushing  117.4  12th  121.1  23rd
Yds. Per Rush    4.7  2nd  4.3  22nd
Passing  232.7  15th  222.3  8th
Yds Per Pass   6.3  25th  6.6  14th
Total Yards  350.1  14th  343.4  11th
Yds. Per Play  5.6  12th  5.5  10th

 

The Dolphins opened up last season with a nice 33-20 upset of the New England Patriots, but they were plagued by inconsistency the rest of the way to finish at an even .500, matching their 8-8 record from the previous 2013 season and again missing the playoffs. In fact, Miami has not advanced to the post-season since 2008, and it has not won a playoff game since way back in the 2000 season.

Now let us take a look at various Miami Future Odds for this 2015 season from several sportsbooks. You can view these and other future and prop odds on the Sportsbook Review Futures and Prop Bets Directory.

 

2015 Miami Dolphins NFL Futures

   5 Dimes    Bookmaker    Bovada    Heritage  
Super Bowl Odds    +3250  +3400  +3300  +3000
AFC Conf. Odds  +1250  +1352  +1600  +1200
AFC East Odds  +355  +356  +400  +325
Win Total  8½ ov-165    9 un-125  8½ ov-150    8½ ov-165  

 

The Patriots are still the heavy favorites to win the AFC East, but the Dolphins may have an opportunity to compete as the Patriots are still dealing with the Tom Brady suspension and the Bills and Jets both have quarterback issues, which Miami does not with Ryan Tannehill getting better every season. The books certainly appear to favor the Dolphins improving on their 8-8 mark from each of the last two seasons.

 

Miami Dolphins Key Additions
Some key veteran additions for the Dolphins include wide receivers Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings, tight end Jordan Cameron and one of the most coveted free agents of all this past off-season in defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh. Miami also added a potential game-breaker in the draft in wide receiver DeVante Parker, as well as a running back in Jay Ajayi that could see a lot of time spelling incumbent Lamar Miller.

Miami Dolphins Key Losses
The Dolphins lost running back Knowshon Moreno, wide receivers Mike Wallace, Brian Hartline and Brandon Gibson, and tight end Charles Clay during the off-season, but frankly they do not figure to feel any of those losses given that Miller has already established himself as the starter over Moreno anyway and Miami restocked nicely at wide receiver and tight end. They do lack a player with Wallace’s speed, but he and Tannehill were rarely in the same page anyway.