The NFL Odds price the Dolphins at 7 ½ wins this offseason. However, at LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas, the chalk is on the over at -130, with a bet on the under giving +110. Will the Dolphins get to a .500 season in 2013, or will they fall to a tough schedule?
The Dolphins face the 8th toughest strength of schedule in 2013 based on 2012 winning percentage, and that is not going to help a rebuilding cause. Right out of the gate they have a tough schedule. Before their Week 6 bye, they have to go on the road to play Indianapolis and New Orleans, and they welcome in Baltimore and Atlanta. We will be learning a lot about this Dolphins team in the first few weeks of the season.
However if they can weather the early storm to a 2-3 SU record heading into their bye, I think they have a strong chance of getting above 7 ½ wins this season. The question is, whether or not -130 is too much chalk for a season wins bet on the Fins at this point in the offseason. Although I think their chances of a nice season are strong considering their division, they do have to play the AFC North and the NFC South this season, two divisions with some strong teams.
Miami heads out on the road in Week 1 to play the Browns in Cleveland, and the NFL Odds have this one at dead even this summer. A lot can change between now and then, but for now it’s a pick em’ with a total of 39 ½. Miami was only 3-5 ATS on the road a season ago, but if they can get their running game going on the road, this team is going to fall right into place.
The Dolphins’ defense is already looking like one of the most improved units for the 2013 season, as they were solid against the run but not the pass in 2012. Cleveland will try and force the ball into Trent Richardson’s hands in Week 1, and the Dolphins are very capable of stopping the young running back. Josh Gordon is suspended for the first two games of the season for Cleveland, which means they will likely not be able to pass as much on the Dolphins improved secondary.
The Sharp Pick
Unlike some of their divisional foes, I can’t recommend the Dolphins in any season wins bet this offseason. Any NFL betting value on the over this offseason is taken away by the fact that you are losing thirty cents on every dollar wagered with an over bet, and the under at +110 is risky too because the Dolphins were 7-9 SU last season and they have improved a lot since then. I think there is going to be a ton of value with Miami this season in certain spots, but this doesn’t seem like it’s it.
My Pick: No Play
Week 1 Lean: Dolphins -110