In a division with the mighty Patriots in it, do any of the other three teams in the AFC East have any shot at covering a divisional future odds bet? There is never such a thing as a lock in the NFL, but seeing the landscape of the AFC East right now, it appears as if the Pats might be just that. However, there are a few instances where the Dolphins are portraying some value, so let’s take a look at Miami and see where the value is going to lie.
Review our Miami Dolphins Super Bowl Futures article.
The Dolphins are +500 to win the AFC East this offseason, and while I wont be recommending a miraculous win over the Patriots this season in the division, I can say that once again, the sportsbooks have undervalued the Dolphins in their offseason future odds. Hopefully like some teams last season and in seasons before, being undervalued in the NFL future odds leads to being undervalued in the game odds as well.
The Dolphins were 8-8 ATS last season and I think that will also play a factor in whether or not they will be a good bet this season. The Dolphins are one of, if not the most improved team in the NFL this offseason, and after last season where they finished out the regular season 7-9 SU, I could very well see the first Dolphins winning season since 2008, both SU and ATS.
The year that the Dolphins went 11-5 SU did not translate into a winning season ATS. In fact since 2008, the Dolphins have been average ATS every season, finishing right around 8-8 ATS like they did last season. So why am I so convinced that the Dolphins will be that much better besides the fact they are undervalued in the offseason future odds?
Their offense should once again be pretty good even after the departure of Reggie Bush. The Dolphins signed Mike Wallace to be their deep threat down the field, and already he and his quarterback are singing each other’s praises. However the real improvement has come on the other side of the ball, which is where I think the real value will lie with Miami.
They resigned Chris Clemons, (FS) which was a great move this offseason, and on top of him they grabbed Dannell Ellerbe from the Ravens and Brent Grimes from the Falcons. This team is going to be a hard-hitting defense that is definitely not going to be easy to run or throw on this offseason. They were already one of the best run defenses in the NFL last year, but they lacked the consistency in their secondary. With some of the move they have made already, Miami should improve their pass defense numbers enough to not get thrashed by Tom Brady and the rest of the NFL.However as many great players as they now have on both sides of the ball, if Ryan Tannehill can’t blossom into the QB some think he is, this experiment in Miami is over before it actually begins. However I have heard the comparisons to Ben Roethlisberger as well with Tannehill, so if all the puzzle pieces fall right into place this offseason, the Dolphins are shaping up to be one of the best value bets for your NFL picks of the entire NFL this season.