NFL Picks: Massive Spreads to Fatten Your Wallet in Week 11

Matthew Jordan

Friday, November 20, 2015 1:54 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 20, 2015 1:54 PM UTC

Here are the Week 11 5Dimes top spread NFL picks for you. We review the top matchups for the week, the NFL odds, and trends to decide on the best options for you to add to your betting ticket. 

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (-13 On NFL Odds)
It's a must-win game for the Seahawks as they are 4-5 and currently just 10th in the NFC standings. It used to be impossible to win at CenturyLink Field, but Seattle could/should be on a three-game skid there. It got a beneficial -- and wrong -- call from the officials to beat the visiting Lions 13-10 in Week 4. Then in Week 6, the Seahawks blew a 9-point fourth-quarter lead in a loss to Carolina. Last week, they allowed 39 points in a 7-point defeat to Arizona that all but ends Seattle's NFC West chances. So now it's likely wild card or bust -- the Seahawks are +600 on NFL odds to repeat as West champion. Usually a team would be happy to face quarterback Blaine Gabbert, one of the biggest first-round draft busts this decade. He makes his second straight start for the 49ers in place of Colin Kaepernick. Gabbert played OK in a 17-16 upset of Arizona in Week 9 and the Niners were off last week. Seattle probably would rather face Kaepernick because he has struggled mightily in his career vs. the Seahawks. In Seattle's 20-3 Week 7 win over San Francisco, Kaepernick was just 13-for-24 for 124 yards and sacked six times. That's pretty typical numbers for him in this series as he's 1-6 vs. Seattle (including playoffs) in his career. Can Gabbert do any better? Doubtful.

Generally don't like giving this many points, but take Seattle for your NFL picks. The Niners have failed to cover seven straight vs. the NFC West. They have covered one of their past six on the road. Seattle is 5-2 ATS in its past seven vs. teams with a losing record. The Seahawks are 7-0-1 ATS in the past eight meetings.

Free NFL Pick: Seattle -12.5 at 5Dimes

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Washington Redskins vs. Carolina Panthers (-8.5 For NFL Betting)
Might this be a trap game for unbeaten Carolina? I ask that because up next are two tough road games: a quick turnaround on Thanksgiving at Dallas, which will have Tony Romo back, and then Week 13 at New Orleans. Might be easy to overlook the 4-5 Redskins. Plus, Washington has to be feeling pretty confident after destroying New Orleans last week 47-14. Kirk Cousins threw for 324 yards and four touchdowns with a perfect 158.3 quarterback rating. The Redskins had  510 yards of offense, which essentially got Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan fired this week. Maybe playing NFC South teams is what Washington needs. It also beat Tampa Bay and should have beaten Atlanta but lost in overtime. The Redskins are winless on the road, however, losing three by double digits and not scoring  more than 21 points in any of them. Carolina has been a bit shaky against the run, allowing 103.4 yards per game and that's where Washington will attack first.

Redskins will cover. I have no statistical basis or any trend to back this up -- I just think Carolina is due a bit of a bad game.

Free NFL Pick: Washington +7 at Heritage

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-7 On NFL Picks)
Would this line have been a couple of points higher if Sam Bradford was starting at quarterback for Philadelphia? He will not as Bradford suffered a shoulder injury and concussion in last week's close loss to Miami. So Mark Sanchez gets  his first start of the year. It's generally boom or bust with that guy. He was 14-for-23 for 156 yards and one crushing interception in place of Bradford vs. the Dolphins. Sanchez might actually be an upgrade from Bradford, though. Last season, with Sanchez as the starter after Nick Foles was injured, the Eagles' offense averaged 2.9 points per drive, the best mark any QB has put up in head coach Chip Kelly's offense with the Eagles. Sanchez went 4-4 in his eight games as a starter but he had 14 turnovers (11 interceptions). Tampa does have a very  good defense, ranking No. 7 overall in yards allowed. The Bucs, behind rookie starting QB Jameis Winston, also have pulled two road upsets already, at New Orleans and at Atlanta. Perhaps Winston likes playing in domes. The Bucs are looking for their first back-to-back wins since November 2013 after beating Dallas ugly last week.

Free NFL Pick: Eagles -6 at BetOnline. This may push, but I'd take the Eagles. Actually, if you want to back Philly shop around because some sportsbooks only have it as a 6-point favorite. Tampa is 1-4 ATS in its past five after a win. The Eagles are 9-4 ATS in their past 13 following a loss.

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Looking for More Free NFL Picks? Don't Miss:
Updated ATS Trends & Top Value NFL Picks For Week 11

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