NFL Picks - Make The Most Out Of Week 15 With These False Favorites & Top Dogs

Detroit Lions

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, December 13, 2016 8:50 PM UTC

Tuesday, Dec. 13, 2016 8:50 PM UTC

When it comes to betting football, sometimes you are the windshield and sometimes you are the bug. Lately, I have been the latter and have had lots of company, namely the sportsbooks. However, this week we turn things around with these false favorites and top dogs.

Last week I was 0-2-1, leaving me 22-18-2 ATS for the season. In my two losses, Arizona and San Diego combined for nine turnovers and you can be the single best handicapper in the world and will lose almost every time when making NFL picks when that happens. Sportsbooks have also been taking a beating the last several weeks.

I digress and went to one my favorite books, A-rated Intertops, where they have great first-time bonus sign ups, to survey the NFL odds and this is what I like this week.

 False Favorite - Miami Dolphins

Miami's win over Arizona was filled with good and bad news. Of course, the winning was good, but losing QB Ryan Tannehill was not good. The fear was he was done for the season with the playoffs on the horizon, but Monday brought about more good news with ACL and MCL sprain, not tear. While not exactly loving the New York Jets, backup quarterback Matt Moore has thrown 16 passes in the last four years in the league and his last start was 2011. Bryce Petty is no prize, but he's in a little groove at least with a couple starts recently and the Dolphins are 0-8 ATS in road games versus division opponents the last three seasons.

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Top Dog - Detroit Lions

Detroit and the New York Giants are mirror images of each other. Neither team scores much has little or no running game and leans on defense with the lack of offense. With that, seeing the Lions receiving five points is frankly too good to pass up. The basic strategy is to always consider taking the points in an evenly matched contest and favorites like the G-Men off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season, are 6-29 ATS the next time out.

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False Top Totals Action - Saints and Cardinals

The total on this NFC confrontation of two teams playing out the season is down just a little to 49.5. Is Drew Brees finally showing his age, turning 38 next month and coming off two 3-interception and no touchdown games? Maybe, but Brees is prideful person like all top quarterbacks and his team is 9-1 OVER playing against a team with a losing record the past two years. Arizona might have No.1 in total defense, but has allowed 27.8 PPG in their last six outings and while it was not all on them, the numbers do not lie. Going against the line move, backed with Cardinals 8-1 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3.

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