NFL Picks: Make a Point to Bet Our Week 10 Top Value Plays

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, November 10, 2015 7:12 PM GMT

Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2015 7:12 PM GMT

It's on to the second half of the NFL season and time to ramp up against the sportsbooks betting odds for the remainder of the season with these sports picks and making usual late season profits.

Last week Pittsburgh had the spread covered for long expanses of time in the second half but its defense amazingly kept giving up plays to Oakland and then D'Angelo Williams ran out of bounce at the one-yard line preventing me from covering and making it a below average day.

But this football handicapper is undeterred and really likes all these value plays for NFL picks.

The present listed NFL odds are courtesy of SBR's Live Odds board. 

 

Green Bay Bounces Detroit Big Time
In seven of the last eight quarters, Green Bay looks anything but a playoff team in defeats to Denver and Carolina. In their past three games the defense has surrendered over 490 yards per game, the offensive line has had more whiffs then batters facing Clayton Kershaw and Packers receivers are taking the theory of 'Six Degrees of Separation' literally , instead of figuratively.

I am the first to admit Green Bay at -11.5 is hardly a value play, but if they would have beaten either the Broncos or Panthers, they would have certainly been 13 or more point favorites.

I am viewing their fourth quarter comeback in Charlotte and additional frustration in much the same way as what Indianapolis did on losing to Carolina. I expect Green Bay like the Colts are back home and while they lost, they found something in last 15 minutes to build on.

Also, Detroit is a complete mess and has lost 24 in a row to the Packers on the road (5-17-2 ATS) and if Aaron Rodgers returns to form and starts fast at Lambeau Field like usual, the Pack is Back in winning by 20 or more.

NFL Pick: Green Bay Packers -11 (-105) at Pinnacle

 

Carolina Solid Value in Tennessee
The Panthers have won 12 regular season games in a row with eight covers and while I agree this is an ideal flat spot after three big games, not sure if line moving against them is on target. Carolina has gone from -6 to -4.5 in Nashville but still has many positive qualities.

The Panthers ability to lead the NFL in rushing and more importantly attempts, showcases not only skill but a commitment every foe has to deal with weekly. Carolina has given up passing yards late the last two weeks, but is still strong enough to be eighth in the league in yards per points allowed.

Finally, nice road win by Tennessee, but they have dropped nine consecutive home games and are 1-11 and 3-8-1 ATS at LP Field since last year and have not covered two spreads in a row since the start of 2013 season, 38 games ago. Panthers by 7.

NFL Pick: Carolina Panthers -4 (-114) at Pinnacle 

 

Broncos Play with Purpose in Drubbing Kansas City
A number of wise guys were playing against Denver last week after their best showing of the season against Green Bay. From a situational standpoint it made a lot sense that Indianapolis could not keep playing as bad as they were, plus, the Colts were used to having success against the Broncos.

This time the circumstances are different, Denver players have to be extremely unhappy, especially on defense after surrendering season-highs in points and yardage to Colts and they are facing Kansas City, a team they know they can beat.

The Chiefs beat Pittsburgh without Ben Roethlisberger at home and dysfunctional Detroit crew, who is coming apart at the seams. Kansas City rushed for 206 yards without Jamaal Charles versus the Lions and if the Chiefs next game is on the road, they are disconsolate 2-14 ATS after posting 200 or more rushing yards.

Denver is revved up by crowd and fueled by loss and handles the Chiefs with ease by 15.

NFL Pick: Denver Broncos -7 (+110) at 5Dimes

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