NFL Picks: Make the Colts +10 Your Big Dog Bet for Week 6

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, October 16, 2015 3:16 PM GMT

Friday, Oct. 16, 2015 3:16 PM GMT

We turn to this weekends Sunday Night showdown betweent the New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts for our Big Dog Play of Week 6.  The Colts are +10 at 5Dimes and we're buying. 

New England Patriots (-10) vs. Indianapolis Colts 8:30 ET NBC
The New England Patriots travel to Indianapolis for this SNF 8:30 ET kick, as televised on NBC.  There will be plenty of emotion in this one, in no small part because of a multitude of references to “Deflategate” that have flooded the airwaves this week. 

For those who believe that Patriots’ QB Brady is on a mission this year, their beliefs are certainly being upheld.  With passing statistics that include a league best 73% completion and 331 PYPG, Brady is leading the Patriots to 37 PPG and 424 YPG.  Along with an NFL best 6.7 offensive YP play, no one is arguing this is the most prolific offense in the league.  Neither is it a surprise that the Patriots are 4-0 SU, 3-0 ATS.  Following an Opening Night push in their (28-21) victory over the Steelers, New England has scored 121 points in covering the number by 45 points in blowout wins vs. Buffalo, Jacksonville and Dallas.  Is there any wonder that the opening number of New England (-7) has been quickly bet up to (-10)?  History is also on the Patriots’ side, as recent meetings with the Colts have been of blowout proportions.  The last 4 wins are by scores of 59-24, 43-22, and last year 42-20 and 45-7.  That’s part of a 6-game series win streak for the Patriots.  

For the Colts, it has been somewhat of an ominous beginning.  Opening Week losses of (27-14) at Buffalo and (20-7) vs. the Jets may have had something to do with opposing defenses.  More accurate cause may have been an ailing throwing shoulder of QB Luck, who is scheduled as probable to return for this game, after missing the last 2 contests.  Indy survived with a pair of narrow victories in those games, thanks to 40 year old backup QB Hasselbeck, who did a yeoman’s job to overcome illness on a short week for the Colts’ Thursday Night victory vs. Houston.  A closer review of the Indianapolis stats shows they have lost the yardage in every game by a count of 399-335.  For the season, they are being outrushed 112-92, completing only 59% of their passes, while allowing 65% of their passes.  But, the Colts are a solid 10-4 ATS as home dog, have a world of value working for them and meaningful double revenge, including playoff revenge from last year’s Championship game loss.  Too good to pass up at this big dog price point!

As a result, I make this my NFL pick as our Big Dog Bet of the Week in a game where many will argue that the NFL odds are not in our favor.

NFL Pick: Indianapolis Colts +10 at 5Dimes

comment here