NFL Picks: Low Ranking Offenses Make Bears vs. Rams an Under Bet

Jason Lake

Wednesday, November 11, 2015 1:20 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2015 1:20 PM UTC

What happens when you put the Chicago Bears and the St. Louis Rams on the same football field? You wind up with of the lowest totals on the Week 10 NFL odds board.

Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 10: 30-30-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 21-27 Total

Two years ago, it was great to be Nick Foles. All he did in Week 9 of the 2013 season was throw for seven touchdowns against the Oakland Raiders. Foles would go on to rack up 19 TD passes for the Philadelphia Eagles before throwing a single pick. It was glorious.

And short-lived. Foles regressed toward the mean in 2014, then was traded to the St. Louis Rams in 2015 for Sam Bradford. Now Foles is playing at below replacement level; in Week 9, he was the lowest-rated quarterback at Football Outsiders, putting up –58 Total DYAR in Sunday's 21-18 overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings (UNDER 40). The UNDER is now 6-2 for the Rams this year. Will they make it 7-2 when they host the Chicago Bears this Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS)?


Foles Is Good?
Good question. As we go to press, there's a total of 42.5 on the Week 10 NFL odds board, but we don't have enough consensus data yet to produce a report on the early betting patterns. A quick scan of the Interwebs reveals some projections that have this game landing in the vicinity of St. Louis 26, Chicago 17, with a lean toward the higher side, so perhaps this is a decent-enough opportunity to give the OVER a spin. They'll be playing indoors. The total's not that big.

Yes, but Foles. He was brought in to provide some semblance of stability for the Rams at a position of need, but the offense is actually worse than it was last year, falling from No. 25 to No. 28 (No. 30 pass, No. 16 rush) on the DVOA charts. However, digging a little deeper into the numbers, we find St. Louis dead last in the NFL in third-down conversion rate at 23.8 percent, including 10.8 percent over the last three games, so maybe Foles has gotten a bit unlucky. Again, this could be a “buy low” opportunity of sorts.

The Dead Zone
What about the Bears (UNDER 5-3)? They salvaged our Week 9 NFL picks by going well UNDER the posted total of 49.5 points in a 22-19 win over the San Diego Chargers. Chicago actually gained 446 yards of total offense, though – and Jay Cutler threw a pick-six, too. Somehow, the two teams only managed to score on three of their seven trips into the red zone.

The Bears only had the No. 20-ranked offense (No. 17 pass and rush) going into Week 9, but they've been slowly making their way up the charts, even with RB Matt Forte (knee) on the sidelines with a sprained right knee. Still, facing the No. 4-ranked Rams defense (No. 4 pass, No. 3 rush) will be a pain, both figuratively and literally. We'll stick with the UNDER for a very small bet, given the ugliness we've seen from both teams lately.

Free NFL Pick: Take UNDER 42.5 (–105) at Heritage

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