NFL Picks: Look at Titans vs. Saints to be High Scoring Affair Week 9

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, November 4, 2015 12:22 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015 12:22 PM GMT

Let’s look at all the series numbers for Titans vs. Saints & recent results to try and  make a wise pick based on a projected number of around 47-50 when the Total is finally released later this week.

Odds Overview
What: NFL Week 9—Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
When: Sunday, November 8, 2015
Current Point Spread: Saints -8 (CG Technology)
(Only) Total in Marketplace*: 47½ (CG Technology) *Numbers off due to Mariota status.

 

Current Realities Heading Into This Game
The Tennessee Titans (1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS) will be heading to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans on Sunday to face the New Orleans Saints (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) in a Week 9 game inter-conference game without Ken Whisenhunt who was fired by the organization on Tuesday morning. The Titans promoted Mike Mularkey to interim Head Coach and it was probably the right thing to do for Tennessee who were 1-6 this year and went 3-20 SU and 4-18-1 ATS under Whisenhunt—an extremely profitable thing for Titans fader the L2 seasons. As far as the (lack of a) Point Spread and the Total—our focus here—the health and availability of Tennessee starting QB Marcus Mariota (Knee, Questionable) is the hold-up as the Oregon Rookie and #2 overall Pick in the NFL Draft missed his second straight game on Sunday when the Titans lost to the Texans, 20-6 at NRG Stadium in Houston in Week 8 action. Backup Zach Mettenberger (22/31, 171 yards, 0 TDs, 1 Interception, 11.7 QBR) was less than impressive, so once new guy Mularkey decides on Mariota or Mettenberger, there will be a Total posted and it should be in the high 40’s or maybe even very low 50’s. Here are the L10 scores of the 13 total meetings in this series with results, but again, this is one of those every 3 years series where the numbers aren’t worth nearly as much from a handicapping POV as teams who play twice annually in their own respective divisions. Especially when we’re going back to the days of the Houston Oilers.

 

Total Results Last 10 Meetings Tennessee Titans-New Orleans Saints
2011
—New Orleans 22 @ Tennessee 17 Total: 47½ Result: Under
2007—Tennessee 31 @ New Orleans 14 Total: 46½ Result: Under (by 1½ Points)
2003—@ Tennessee 23 New Orleans 12 (The Coliseum, Nashville, Tennessee) Total: 44 Result: Under
1999—Tennessee 24 @ New Orleans 21 Total: 36½ Result: Over
1996—Houston Oilers 31 @New Orleans 14 Total: 40 Result: Over
1993—@ New Orleans 33 Houston Oilers 21 Total: 39 Result: Over
1990—@ Houston Oilers 23 New Orleans 10 (Astrodome, Houston, Texas) Total: 43 Result: Under
1987—@ New Orleans 24 Tennessee 10 (Astrodome, Houston, Texas) Total: 46½ Result: Under
1984—New Orleans 27 @ Houston Oilers 10 (Astrodome, Houston, Texas) Total: 49 Result: Under
1981—New Orleans 27 @ Houston Oilers 24 (Astrodome, Houston, Texas) Total: 36 Result: Over

 

Game Expectations & Series Trends
As you can see, a (meaningless) pattern of 3 straight Unders followed by 3 straight Overs followed by 3 straight Unders.But why deemed “meaningless”? because these numbers in this infrequent series date all the way back to 1981—when Ronald Reagan was President and Bruce Jenner was still Bruce Jenner—and to a point in Time when this Tennessee Titans franchise was still in Houston and known as the Houston Oilers. The Saints are 4-3-1 O/U this season while the Titans are 4-3 O/U, so both these teams have skewed to the Over to a small degree. When these two last met in 2011, the Saints won 22-17 in Nashville, slightly covering ATS as 3-point favorites 17-22 while in the last meeting here in the Big Easy, the underdog Titans won outright, 31-14 in 2007 as 4½-point underdogs. The Titans are 3-1-1 ATS the L5 meetings with Brees and the Saints and with Purdue product Brees going off last game and as Healthy and Confident as he has been this season and having an abundance of guys who will want to get the football and get in the End Zone again after last Sunday’s explosion against the Giants in which New Orleans scored 52 points and beat New York in OT at Home here at the Superdome, 52-48 as Brees (40/50, 511 yards, 95.7 QBR) threw for an amazing 7 TDs.The Win put New Orleans (26.6 ppg) at the .500 mark (4-4) and players like Brandin Cooks, Marques Colston, CJ Spiller, Willie Snead and TE Benjamin Watson and others who all were on the receiving end of Brees’ TD passes in Week 8 will want to keep that feel-good feeling this weekend, get the W and get to 5-4 SU. And although Tennessee is somewhat anemic on Offense, the Saints allow almost 30 ppg per game so the pace of the game (and indoor conditions) should allow for the Titans to be able to get near the 24 point mark. And New Orleans putting up 40 or more in the friendly confines of the Superdome when they’re feeling good, fighting to get into Playoff position and playing a team as bad as Tennessee is also a possibility here.  Which makes our NFL pick on the over sound a lot more appealing. 

 

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: New Orleans Saints 33 Tennessee Titans 24

NFL WEEK 9 PICK: Over 47½ (CG Technology)

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