This football handicapper is looking over the betting odds from sportsbooks does not see a great deal of values plays, however, was certainly able to identify three that make a lot of sense.
Each of these games I really like for NFL picks and feel at ease recommending these despite a couple of off weeks which still has left me 7-5 ATS the last month here.
New England Rides Colts Hard
My original pick was Buffalo until the quarterback switch, but I have no such reservations about Tom Brady. This would be a great week to a fly on a wall around the New England practice facilities to hear talk about "Deflategate" and what the Patriots players really think. However, we let somebody else perseverate about that topic and focus our attention to the fact Sunday night home team cover 1/3 of the time after a win and if their opponent is off two victories. And let's not forget the Dolts have lost every game in the stats this season, hardly the mark of a championship. Any angry Pats crew cruises to double digit triumph.
Rested Vikings Ambush Rudderless Chiefs
It had be a crushing loss for Kansas City. Not only did they blow a 14-point lead to home to Chicago, but lost do-everything running back Jamaal Charles. Andy Reid has made it known he longer is crazy about RB Knile Davis and Alex Smith is playing very much like the same quarterback San Francisco was willing to give up.
The 1-4 Chiefs travel north to Minnesota where the Vikings return to play after a week off and are 2nd in the NFL in yards per point allowed, which suggests K.C. will not score much. Giving 3.5-points seems like a bargain, especially if Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer allows Teddy Bridgewater to take shots down the field against Kansas City's vulnerable pass defense, which ranks 24th in yards per pass attempts allowed. The Vikes ship sails and they win by 10.
Green Bay Overwhelms San Diego Again
Hard to call a team favored by 9.5 points a value play for sports picks, but hear me out. San Diego was one hard leg tug away from keeping Pittsburgh out of the end zone, but it did not and they suffered a gut-wrenching loss. Now the Chargers on a short week has to go to one the toughest place to win in the NFL, against currently one of the best two teams in Roger the Ruler's league.
Green Bay is never afraid to change up game plans to fit the opposition. Statistically, San Diego is fine defensively, ranked 15th, but a closer look finds them 29th against the run and 26th in yards per pass attempt. You don't have to be Mike McCarthy of Green Bay to put together a game plan of running Eddie Lacy and James Starks early and have Aaron Rodgers start firing down the field once the San Diego defense starts stuffing the box. Green Bay is 9-1 ATS at Lambeau after five or more consecutive wins, with margin of victory 21.2 points on average. Expect the Pack to have the Chargers fitted for Cheese Heads after winning with ease and moving to 7-0 SU and ATS against the Bolts.