NFL Picks: Lock Giants +6.5 In Highly Contested Game vs. Vikings

Nikki Adams

Saturday, December 26, 2015 8:55 PM GMT

The highly-anticipated clash between the Giants and Vikings is shaping up rather intriguingly in NFL betting markets. Find out how and where the value NFL picks are to be had.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":2837223, "sportsbooksIds":[169,1096,93,19,92,238], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

NFL Picks: Giants +6.5 

Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

NY Giants (6-8 SU, 3-4 Away)
The NY Giants came away losers in a thrilling showdown with the Carolina Panthers in week 15 NFL betting. At one point, the Giants were down 35-7 to the Panthers, starring down the barrel of a horrendous loss at home, when, all of a sudden, the Giants turned the game on its head and reeled off 28-points to knot it up at 35-35. Just as it looked the game would go into overtime, the Panthers orchestrated a game-winning drive that resulted in a field goal and lifted the Panthers to the 38-35 win; thereby, salvaging their undefeated run and sending Giants into uncertainty in the NFC East division.

As it is, the Giants are tied in second place with the Eagles on a 6-8 SU record. The Washington Redskins lead the division with a 7-8 SU record, faced with a date with the Eagles on Sunday. The Giants need the Eagles to beat the Redskins in order to have a fighting chance in week 17. It goes without saying, the Giants need to also beat the Vikings on the road.

As it is, the NFL odds are stacked against the Giants in week 16. A combination of several things from the Vikings’ solid record on the season, underscored by a solid a 5-2 SU record at home, and, arguably, the biggest hit to the Giants’ chances is Odell Beckham Jr.’s suspension, which was held up on appeal this week.

Without their best player on the field, odds makers have evaluated the Giants as the significant underdogs of at least a touchdown. That’s quite significant by all accounts. Most sportsbooks opened with a 7-point spread but NFL betting lines have come down to 6 points at some sportsbooks such as BetOnline, Bookmaker and BetCRIS.

 

Minnesota Vikings (9-5, 5-2 Home)
The Minnesota Vikings have punched above their weight class according to preseason expectations. Handed a tough schedule and contained within a tough NFC North division, expectations were held much lower than what they’ve been actually able to accomplish. Yet, despite their standout season which puts them into sixth spot in the playoff hunt, they could very well miss out on the playoffs if things don’t go to plan down the stretch.

It’s imperative to win over the Giants to secure their place in the postseason on Sunday. According to SBR Consensus Betting, that reveals the Vikings are getting the bulk of the tickets at 59.48%, the public seems to be expecting just such an outcome.

But all is not as it seems in this game with the Vikings as the 6-to-7-point favorites. They might be getting the bulk of the tickets at a 60/40 clip, but the money is greater on the Giants. In fact, almost 93% of the money. That’s a lot of money riding on the Giants considering it’s made up of less than 50% of the tickets. If that’s not an indication of sharp money, then what is?

The Giants have been a solid underdog bet on the season, including last week’s 38-35 loss in which they covered as the 5.5-point underdogs or thereabouts depending on your sportsbook of choice. They are 4-2-1 ATS as underdogs with a 2.4-point losing margin and a plus 2.4-point differential against the spread.  As away underdogs, they are 2-1-1 ATS with a 2.5-point losing margin and a plus 2.5-point differential against the spread.

Of course, the Vikings have performed well against the spread too this season with an 11-3-0 record, second best in the league, highlighted by  a 1.7-point winning margin and a plus 2.2-point differential against the spread. What’s evident by those stats though is that the Vikings haven’t exactly blown opponents off the field, prompting sharp bettors to look at the unpredictable, dangerous floating Giants as the potential savvy NFL pick.

 

NFL Betting Verdict
There’s a lot riding on the outcome of this game for both teams, which makes it a tough call on our NFL picks. At first glance, the Vikings do appear to be the smart NFL bet at home given their solid record on the season. But it would be a mistake to underestimate the Giants, even without Odell Beckham Jr. Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin have pulled rabbits out of the hat before and they could very well do so here again. In any event, a touchdown on the NFL odds board seems too many points to lay with the Vikings. As such, we’re taking the Giants to cover the road underdogs.