NFL Picks: Lock in Giants (-2.5) vs. Redskins Before Odds Shift

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, November 25, 2015 7:37 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 25, 2015 7:37 PM UTC

The NFL Odds have the Giants as -2 ½ road favorites vs the Redskins, with a total of 47 points, but the Washington show up and take control of the NFC East & are they worth of our NFL picks?

NFC East: Who Can Suck The Least?
The NFC East is fascinating this season simply for the fact that it’s been really unpredictable and really hilarious to watch. Being a fan of any team in this division is probably hard, but for these two teams it boils down to taking advantage of the Cowboys and Eagles fans being even more frustrated. If anyone has underperformed this season it’s those two teams, and with Dallas and Philly both underdogs this week in their own games, the Giants have a chance to put some distance between them and the rest of the division.

The problem with that is the Giants’ defense has been very hard to predict on the road this season. In two games against the Bucs and Bills on the road, the Giants gave up only 18 and 10 points respectfully, but in their other two road games they gave up 27 points to the Cowboys in Week 1, and 52 points to the Saints back in Week 8. If the good Giants’ road defense shows up to this game against the Skins, they should have little problem winning and covering the spread. But, if bad Giants defense comes into DC, the Skins might have a chance to usurp the Giants as the number one team in the East.

New York has dominated the last five meetings between these two teams, winning all five SU and ATS, and winning by an average margin of victory of more than two touchdowns. With the G-Men winning three of their last four ATS, and the Redskins looking pretty bad outside of their win against the Saints, it would seem as if the Giants are the play.


The Sharp Pick
A couple of very big stats stick out to me for the Giants in this game, and it’s another one of the reasons I am laying the points with them on the road. First of all, the Giants’ offense has finally come alive this season under Ben McAdoo, and even though New York has been inconsistent at times, they are the 4th overall ranked offense in the NFL right now, and the Redskins after a hot start have regressed back to the mean on defense.

Another one is the fact that New York is number one in the league this season in takeaway to giveaway ratio (T/G). The Skins on the other hand rank in the bottom third of the league in offense and defense this season, and they have given the ball away 19 times, which is tied for 6th most in the league.

Another huge factor in this one is the Giants are coming off their bye week. Even though the Redskins have gone 4-1 SU this season at home, winning their last four from Fed Ex Field SU, I see the rested Giants taking down the win here. The four wins from Washington at home this season have come from St. Louis, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay and New Orleans, who have combined SU records of 17-23. Lock in the Giants with a week 12 NFL pick at -2 ½ before they lengthen the NFL odds up to -3 or higher.

NFL Pick: New York Giants -2 ½ (-120) at BetOnline

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