NFL Picks: Lions vs. Packers Week 5

Joe Freda

Tuesday, October 1, 2013 5:57 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2013 5:57 PM UTC

The Detroit Lions moved to a 3-1 spread record with last weekend’s 40-32 victory over the Chicago Bears, cashing as three-point home favorites. Sunday’s NFL action has Jim Schwartz’ squad slated to meet the Green Bay Packers, who return home after an early bye week.

Lions, Stafford hold off Bears

Detroit led by as many as 24 points in last Sunday’s triumph, outscoring the Bears in a pivotal second quarter, 27-10. Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford connected 23-of-35 passes en route to 242 yards through the air, moving the ball for 23 first downs in his side’s 32 minutes of possession.

Stafford found wide out Calvin Johnson for one touchdown, while taking in a one-yard keeper to give his squad a 16-10 lead. Lions tight end Brandon Pettigrew logged a season-high seven catches, finishing with 54 receiving yards.

Detroit’s Reggie Bush dashed for 139 yards out of the backfield, including a 37-yard touchdown run as part of his 18 carries. The contest’s combined 72 points soared OVER the ‘total’ of 48, while Lions placekicker David Akers hit 4-of-4 field goals. 

Packers edged in Cincy 

Green Bay has been idle since Sept. 22, losing a 34-30 road affair to the Cincinnati Bengals. Packers running back Johnathan Franklin gave up a late fumble, returned by Cincinnati’s Terence Newman for a deciding touchdown. 

Franklin finished with 103 rushing yards, taking in one touchdown for his first score of the year. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw two interceptions, notching 244 passing yards as part of 26 completed strikes.

Green Bay’s defense gave up touchdowns in all three of Cincinnati’s red zone trips, while holding the Bengals to 297 total yards. The Packers surrendered 20 unanswered points to blow a 30-14 lead, with Cincinnati’s late surge also sending the battle OVER its 49 ½-point ‘total.’


Back the Packers at home 

NFL odds first opened Green Bay as a seven-point home favorite, while first listing the ‘total’ at 51 ½. Early wagers on Detroit and the UNDER dropped the numbers to 6 ½ and 51, respectively. 

I am going against the early sports betting ‘steam,’ laying the points with the Packers as part of this week’s NFL picks.

Green Bay should be fuming during its bye week after the kind of loss suffered in Cincinnati, while ready to run up some big numbers against a vulnerable Lions’ defense. The Packers notched a crushing win over the Washington Redskins in their sole home date, 38-20, jetting out to an early 31-0 lead.

Detroit has allowed 25.2 PPG, including a season-high of 32 in last week’s meeting with the Bears. Stafford and Co. have put up 23 PPG on offense, but their two road dates showcased the team’s lowest octane of the year.

The Lions are 1-9-2 ATS in their last dozen spots that came after a matchup of scoring more than 30 points, while Green Bay has an 8-1 spread record in its last nine affairs that came after a bye week. Detroit is 2-6 ATS in its last eight meetings with the Packers, including a 0-4 mark at sports betting windows in the span’s most recent four contests. 

Look for the Packers to bounce back with a big cashed ticket here, adding to their stellar 16-5 spread record in duels that followed their last 21 defeats. 

NFL Pick:  Green Bay Packers -6 ½ at Bet365

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