NFL Picks: Lions & Seahawks to go Through Air & Over the Total Monday Night

Charles Stark

Monday, October 5, 2015 12:31 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 5, 2015 12:31 PM UTC

For Monday Night Football I expect the Lions to put up few points and for Seattle to get their fair share so I will be backing over the total with my NFL Pick.

NFL odds
NFL odds makers came out with a very low total for this game at 43 which is pretty much the number across the board. Right now you can still get some pretty good odds at over this total at Pinnacle -105. For my NFL pick of the day I'm going to take over this total of 43 points.

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Detroit Lions
At 0-3 Detroit has not done much on the offensive end. So far this season their averaging 18.7 points per game, 305 yards per game, and a third-down 37.14% conversion rate. They were stifled last week against the Broncos who are one of the best defenses in the NFL, part of the problem being three turnovers. Hopefully against Seattle they will be able to keep possession a little bit more because surprisingly the Seahawks have yet to pick a ball off. Most likely that will come to an end tonight against the turnover prone Lions, but Detroit should be able to put up some points. Look for Matt Stafford to put the ball up a lot and have some success,  Detroit leads the NFL in passing to rushing percentage throwing the ball 72.43% of the time.

Defensively Detroit is allowing 27.7 points per game, 395.7 yards per game, and a third-down 45.95% conversion rate. The biggest issue with the Lions on defense is their lack of stopping the pass. They are one of the worst teams in the NFL allowing opponents a 78.43% completion rate per game, and 8.4 yards passing per attempt average. Although Seattle doesn't put the ball up as much as most NFL teams look for Russell Wilson to take advantage of them in this aspect. I expect Seattle to put up a lot of points this game.


Seattle Seahawks
Offensively Seattle is averaging 24.7 points per game, 346 yards per game, and a third-down 36.36% conversion rate. They rank as one of the middle tiered offenses in the NFL right now but their rushing attack has been fine averaging 134 yards per game which is ranked fifth in the league. Also, Wilson has a solid completion rate of about 70%, so as mentioned above I look for Seattle to pass the ball a little bit more tonight. Something that is been plaguing them offensively is keeping their quarterback up right as they are one of the worst teams in the league in sacks allowed per percentage. Detroit shouldn't impose much of a problem in this aspect though as they are one of the lower ranked teams at actually getting to the quarterback.

Defensively Seattle is allowing 20.3 points per game, 286.3 yards per game, and a third-down 37.14% conversion rate. As usual the defense has been carrying this team and I expect them to play well tonight. As mentioned, if there is a hole in this defense it would be when teams pass against them. Although they rank first in the NFL in opponents passes per game at 25.7, they are one of the lower ranked teams in opponent completion percentage and opponent yards per pass. I don't expect them to give up a lot of points tonight, but I do expect Detroit to try and exploit this semi-weak aspect of the Seahawks.


Final Analysis
With this low total I like for both these teams, especially the Seahawks, to get us enough points to go well over the total. For one of your NFL picks today I recommend backing the over in what should be a more interesting game from an offensive standpoint than people anticipate.

NFL Pick: Detroit & Seattle OVER 43 (-105) at 5Dimes

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