NFL Picks: Lay Seahawks' Bulky Odds With Confidence Against Rams

Jason Lake

Thursday, December 24, 2015 1:30 PM GMT

Are the Seattle Seahawks the best team in the NFL? They're definitely the biggest favorites on the Week 15 NFL odds board, laying 13 points at home to the St. Louis Rams.

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NFL Pick: Seahawks -13
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

Jason's 2015 record as of Dec. 23: 49-47-3 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 25-32-1 Total

 

So here we are again with the Seattle Seahawks on top of the NFL. Wait, what? Aren't the Seahawks (9-5 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) a Wild Card team this year? True, but from an efficiency standpoint, nobody has played better football than Seattle this year. That's according to the usual suspects at Football Outsiders, who have the Seahawks ranked No. 1 in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) through Week 16.

Don't expect the 'Hawks to take it easy this Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET) when they play their last home game of the regular season against the St. Louis Rams (6-8 SU, 6-7-1 ATS). Seattle currently holds the No. 5 seed in the NFC, which would lead to a first-round matchup against whomever wins the NFC East. That's a spicy meatball. The Seahawks are 13-point faves on the NFL odds; our consensus reports at press time show 54 percent of early bettors on the Rams, but 59 percent of the monies wagered on Seattle.

 

All's Well That Ends Well
It's kind of fitting, in a roundabout way, that the Seahawks find themselves back at No. 1 on the efficiency charts – where they've finished every year since the Pete Carroll-Russell Wilson Era began in 2012. Heading into the 2015 campaign, the team was in a state of flux, scrambling to sign their free agents and looking for ways to incorporate TE Jimmy Graham, acquired from the New Orleans Saints in exchange for center Max Unger.

No need to worry about that anymore. Graham (48 catches, two TDs) was placed on injured reserve three weeks ago with a ruptured right patellar tendon; rookie WR Tyler Lockett (46 catches, six TDs) has picked up the slack, getting a season-high seven targets in each of the last three games and making 18 catches for three touchdowns. As for the hole at center created by Unger's departure, Patrick Lewis was given the starting nod over Drew Nowak in Week 10. The Seahawks are 5-1 SU and ATS since, and Wilson has thrown 20 touchdown passes with just one pick.

In short, this Seattle team is much better than the guys who lost 34-31 in overtime to the Rams (+3.5 at home). And we haven't even mentioned safety Kam Chancellor, who was in a contract holdout at the time. That makes Sunday a compelling “divisional revenge” matchup for Seattle. Last year, the 'Hawks beat St. Louis (+11 away) 20-6 in the season finale to atone for losing to the Rams in Week 7. We're still talking 13 points here, so don't dip too far into your bankroll when you're making your NFL picks this week, but don't let Big Chalk scare you away from betting on Seattle.