NFL Picks: Last Minute Betting Ticket Value Plays for Week 9

Jason Lake

Sunday, November 8, 2015 2:45 PM GMT

Sunday, Nov. 8, 2015 2:45 PM GMT

If you're looking to do some last-minute shopping for your Week 9 NFL picks, there's some big money on the Atlanta Falcons and the Minnesota Vikings this Sunday.

Jason's 2015 record as of Nov. 7: 27-21-2 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 18-27 Total
 

Life is good here at the home office. We've got Internet, we've got filtered water, and we've got our NFL picks against the spread for every single game on the Week 9 schedule – except for two, which we'll unveil for you now. Did we save the best for last? If you believe in the power of big money, then yes. Yes we did.
 

St. Louis vs. Minnesota (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)
This is a highly intriguing matchup featuring the under-rated Rams (4-3 SU and ATS) and the highly over-rated Vikings (5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS). The Vikings are 1-point home faves on our NFL odds board at press time, and according to our expanded consensus reports, Minnesota is pulling in over 71 percent of the action, despite just 48 percent of bettors preferring the home side. The average bet size on Minnesota is $199. On St. Louis: $73.

The intrigue comes in when you compare those numbers to the advanced stats at Football Outsiders. They think much less highly of the Vikes, ranking them No. 27 overall (No. 27 offense, No. 24 defense, No. 8 special teams) in terms of efficiency. The Rams are in the top half of the league at No. 13 overall (No. 28 offense, No. 4 defense, No. 16 special teams). The Simple Rating System at Pro-Football Reference also prefers St. Louis (+2.6 SRS) over Minnesota (–0.3 SRS).

So why is the big money on the Vikings? Beats us. In the beginning, the sharps were on the Rams, moving the line from Minnesota –2.5 at the open. It appears the public has come in on the Vikings since then, but not enough to move the lines back in the other direction. We'll put a small wager on St. Louis, thank you kindly.

Free NFL Pick: Take the Rams +2 at SportsInteraction

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Atlanta vs. San Francisco (4:05 p.m. ET, FOX)
We took a close look at this matchup earlier this week, and we decided the UNDER was the better pick, based on the miserable sod at the Field of Jeans, and San Francisco's decision to start Blaine Gabbert at quarterback – plus the weather. Updating that forecast, we've moved up from a 20-percent chance of rain at kick-off to 60 percent. Excellent.

The Falcons (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) are still the runaway hottest pick on the Week 9 slate. They're hauling in over 97 percent of the action with an average bet size of $1,150. Holy doodle. The 49ers (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS) are only getting $63 a pop, but there are some contrarians out there with some big bets on San Fran as a 7-point home dog. We've already been burned twice here at the ranch trying to get some of that value out of the Niners. Not today.

Free NFL Pick: Take the Falcons -7 (-105) at The Greek

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