NFL Picks: Largest Totals to Lock & Load Week 10

Matthew Jordan

Saturday, November 14, 2015 5:54 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 14, 2015 5:54 PM UTC

My first losing week on largest totals in Week 9. There were high-scoring games but, Bears-Chargers wasn't one of them. Check the NFL odds for the highest BookMaker Week 10 totals.

New Orleans Saints vs. Washington Redskins (50 On NFL Odds)
The largest total of Week 10 is 54.5 in Patriots at Giants, but I looked at that story in my largest spread picks story -- took the points -- so won't here. I have a feeling that many of you who also compete in Survivor Pools were burned in a big way by the Saints last week, as they somehow lost at home to Tennessee 34-28 in overtime a week after putting up 52 points in a shootout win over the Giants. If you don't believe in letdown games, that Titans-Saints result was exhibit No. 1 they exist. New Orleans is No. 1 in the NFL in total offense because Drew Brees leads the league in passing yards per game. But history has shown he's not the same game in outdoor stadiums as  he is in a dome. For example, his worst completion percentage of the season came at Philadelphia and his worst rating at Indianapolis -- OK, that's a dome but it's not the Saints' Superdome. While Brees might throw it 50 times Sunday, the Redskins will be happy to run it 50. They fell behind early last week at New England, were forced to throw and that didn't go well in a 27-10 loss. Washington is 3-1 at home this season and generally has played well there defensively. The weather looks perfect in Landover on Sunday so that won't be a factor for NFL odds.

Free NFL Pick: 'Under' at Bookmaker simply because it's outdoors. The 'under' is 7-3 in Washington's past 10 at home and 10-2 in the Redskins' past 12 following an ATS loss.

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Miami Dolphins vs. Philadelphia Eagles (49 In NFL Betting)
I can't figure either of these teams out. Thought the Dolphins had turned their season around under interim coach Dan Campbell in winning his first two games, but they have been blown out the last two when they finally played good competition. Lamar Miller rushed for 288 yards in those first two wins under Campbell, which opened up play-action passes for Ryan Tannehill, but Miller has totaled just 59 yards in the past two losses. The Dolphins run defense, supposed to be a strength with the addition of Ndaumkong Suh, ranks 31st in the NFL. That could be an issue against Philly, which has started to emphasize the ground game. More of DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews means less pressure on Sam Bradford and that's a good thing. In Sunday night's overtime win over Dallas, Bradford didn't turn it over for only the third time this season and looked much more comfortable in the offense. Interestingly, Eagles head coach Chip Kelly is 6-0 in his last six games against AFC teams dating back to 2013. Weather looks nice in Philly on Sunday.

Free NFL Pick: 'Over' at Bookmaker. Both defenses have major weaknesses. The 'over' is 8-3 in Miami's past 11. The 'over' is 5-1 in Philly's past six in November.

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Baltimore Ravens (48 For NFL Picks)
Entering this season, who would have thought a game featuring Jacksonville, which has been awful offensively for years, and Baltimore, which usually has one of the NFL's better defenses, would have one of the highest totals of Week 10? Not me. The Jags have scored at least 20 points in four straight games, with two in the 30s. In their first four games, they only reached 20 once. Blake Bortles is showing why he was the No. 3 overall pick last season. He has multiple touchdown passes in each of the past four games and has thrown for at least 303 yards in three of them. Bortles may not have top receiver Allen Hurns for this game. He has caught a TD in six straight games but is dealing with a sprained foot. Hurns says he plans to play. Jacksonville has lost 13 straight on the road. Baltimore comes off its bye week still believing it can make the playoffs at 2-6. But now the Ravens are without No. 1 receiver Steve Smith, who is out for the season. Joe Flacco's pass-catching group is clearly the worst in the NFL. And that Baltimore defense is terrible. The Ravens have allowed at least 20 points in seven straight games and at least 25 in the past four. They haven't had a takeaway in five straight games. It will be nice in Baltimore on Sunday.

Free NFL Pick: 'Over' at Bookmaker. The 'over' is 4-0 in the Jags' past four and 6-1 in their past seven against the AFC. The 'over' is 4-0 in Baltimore's past four against teams with a losing record.  

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