A successful Week 3 on my biggest spread picks as I hit 2 out of 3 and came out a winner. Here are the Week 4 top NFL spread odds current available on the NFL odds board.
Detroit Lions vs. Seattle Seahawks (-9.5 On NFL Odds)
When the NFL schedule was released back in the spring, this looked like one of the best "Monday Night Football" matchups of the year. Do you realize how close the teams came to playing in last season's divisional round? The Lions got hosed by two calls in a close loss at Dallas or they would have advanced to Seattle; instead the Seahawks faced a Carolina team that was below .500. Detroit could have beaten the Seahawks last year, I believe that. Now here we are and the Lions are 0-3 -- Jim Caldwell is the +400 second-favorite at Bovada's NFL odds to be the first coach fired -- and the Seahawks 1-2. Nothing is really working with the Lions. Matthew Stafford isn't having a good season, with a rating of just 78.7 that is 24th. He already has five picks compared to 12 all last year. The Lions' running game is non-existent, ranking dead last at 45.0 yards per game. The Detroit defense, now without Ndumakong Suh, is 25th overall. It was second to Seattle last year. Maybe Caldwell should go. Seattle had little trouble with the Bears in a 26-0 win last week, forcing Chicago to punt on every possession. Not sure the return of Pro Bowl safety Kam Chancellor has cured all yet, however. The Bears are terrible and the Seattle offense didn't play all that well vs. the Bears. Keep in mind here that Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch is likely to be a game-time decision with a hamstring injury that knocked him out of last week's win.
NFL Free Pick: Some sites have this at 10. Not sure at that number, but at 9.5 give the points. The Lions are 1-7 ATS in their past eight on the road. Seattle has covered six straight after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts (-10 In NFL Betting)
Like Seattle, the Colts are another 1-2 team that I don't believe is fixed yet. Indy was pretty fortunate to avoid a 0-3 start last week with a come-from-behind 35-33 win against Tennessee, a team that the Colts should beat easily. Think about this: the Colts have allowed 80 total points to the Titans, Jets and Bills. Not exactly offensive powerhouses. Andrew Luck keeps turning the ball over as well. He has thrown at least two picks in every game and leads the NFL with seven. He is also completing only 56.0 percent of his passes. Luck has some terrific skill-position talent around him, but the offensive line remains a huge issue. Luck is being called questionable for this game because of a right shoulder injury. He has been limited in practice this week. I'd be surprised if Luck doesn't play -- he has yet to miss a snap as a pro. The last game he missed for an injury was the 2009 Sun Bowl while with Stanford. Matt Hasselbeck would start if Luck can't. The Jaguars will be without their best offensive lineman, right guard Brandon Linder, and receiver Marqise Lee in this one due to injuries. Indy has won five straight in this series, all by double digits.
NFL Free Pick: If Luck plays, give the points. If not, take them. The Colts are 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings.
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers (-8 On NFL Picks)
I'm just going to cut to the chase here: I think this is a bit of a trap game for Green Bay. The Packers are an unstoppable machine at Lambeau Field, no question. Aaron Rodgers is putting up absurd numbers there over the past couple of years. But the Packers were a vastly different team on the road in 2014 and weren't great in a Week 1 win at Chicago. Also, this is a short week as the Packers beat the Chiefs on Monday night in Week 3. Receiver Davante Adams is likely to miss the game with an ankle injury. San Francisco quarterback Colin Kaepernick is having a lousy season thus far and clearly won't ever be the superstar many projected. Yet he is 3-0 in his career against the Packers. True, those 49ers teams were much superior to this one, but his running ability always seems to give Dom Capers' defenses trouble. The Niners have been routed the past two weeks, but those were on the road. In their one home game, they easily handled Minnesota.
NFL Free Pick: Take the points -- almost always take a home dog getting more than a touchdown. The Packers are 0-4 ATS in their past four Sunday games following a Monday game. They are 3-8 ATS in their past 11 vs. teams with a losing record.