NFL Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Win Totals & Game-by-Game Predictions

Nikki Adams

Saturday, May 30, 2015 5:59 PM GMT

Will the Kansas City Chiefs prove legitimate NFL playoff contenders this season? By the season totals, the prognosis is iffy as odds makers chalk the line at 8.5 wins in 2015. Here's our game-by-game preview complete with NFL picks.

The Andy Reid Factor
In the last two seasons, the Chiefs have combined for a 20-12-0 mark, which includes a 9-7-0 mark last season that came just shy of securing a playoff berth. Nevertheless, it marked the second straight season Andy Reid and the Chiefs beat the Vegas season totals set ahead of the season. It's worth mentioning here (pardon the shameless self-promotion) but we were right on the money with our NFL picks on last season's win totals of 8.5, recommending not only the Over 8.5 at +110 (a nice value play, if we do say so ourselves) but also tipping exactly a 9-7 SU season. "By our game-by-game predictions, the Chiefs are on course for a 9-7 finish this season, which would put them just Over 8.5 at +110." 

Andy Reid has a 5-2 record against Vegas season win totals in the last seven years, a ringing endorsement if there ever was one to back the Chiefs for another season of busting bookies' NFL odds. Put another way, bet against Reid if you dare.

It's worth mentioning that there are those NFL experts that are predicting a modest season for the Chiefs in accordance to the Vegas odds, basing these predictions on the strength of their NFL schedule that ranks 7th in the league with a winning percentage of 0.545 and the fact that two seasons in a row they finished below .500 in the last seven games. In 2012-2013 they went 2-5 down the stretch while in 2013-2014 they went 3-4 down the stretch. 

Last year with the 7th ranked schedule (0.559 winning percentage), they finished with a 9-7 season. Therefore, it's not surprising that predictions are falling within a similar range. Here's how we see it playing out for the Chiefs in 2015.

 

Week 1: vs. Houston (road), Sunday, Sept 13 at 1 PM
The Kansas City Chiefs open the season on the road at Houston, where the quarterback situation is still up in the air as Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallet are set to duke out the starting job. Nevertheless, this is a tough road stop in week 1 of the NFL betting season. Houston finished 9-7 SU last season and outscored opponents by 65 points despite question marks at quarterback. If the Chiefs can capitalise on the changes that are still underway at Houston that could take a few weeks to gel, they could take the road win to start the season on a positive mark.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 1-0

 

Week 2: vs. Denver (home), Thursday, Sept 17 at 8:25 PM
In week 2 NFL betting, the Chiefs take on the mighty Denver Broncos. The standard of the AFC West and the NFL favorites to win a fourth straight division crown. Home advantage is going to be key for the Chiefs; Arrowhead is a hostile place.The problem is that the Chiefs haven't beaten the Broncos since Peyton Manning took over at quarterback. No reason to assume that is about to change yet. Last season, they faced Denver in week 2 at Mile High and lost 24-17.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record: 1-1

 

Week 3: vs. Green Bay (road), Monday, Sept 28 at 8:30 PM
NFL Schedulers are giving the Chiefs no favors with a second straight Primetime game against one of the NFL heavyweights. Lambeau is an unforgiving place. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers went 8-0 SU last season at home and they're sure to be just as tough to beat at Lambeau this season. This figures to be an impossible task for the Chiefs in the early weeks of the 2015 NFL season.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record: 1-2

 

Week 4: vs. Cincinnati (road), Sunday, Oct 4 at 1 PM
The Cincinnati Bengals went 5-2-1 SU at home last season, so not so infallible. On paper, this stacks up as a third straight game against a potential NFL playoff contender (not that it has amounted to anything tangible in the postseason for the Bengals yet with Andy Dalton), but if the Chiefs have the right mindset this could be a pivotal game and road win.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 2-2

 

Week 5: vs. Chicago (home), Sunday, Oct 11 at 1 PM
The Chicago Bears are a team in transition this year with new head coach John Fox. It remains to be seen whether Jay Cutler will remain the starter or whether Jimmy Clausen will nick his duties (or some other bloke). A lot is up in the air with the Bears at the moment, but the Chiefs' strength was the run game last season. The Bears were modest at best against the run. The Chiefs can runaway with this game in a big way, particularly with home field advantage.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 3-2

 

Week 6: vs. Minnesota (road), Sunday, Oct 18 at 1 PM
The Minnesota Vikings are a team with plenty of upside; Teddy Bridgewater showed promise in his rookie season and Adrian Peterson figures to be back. Still, the Vikings have a lot of growing pains ahead and a much-improved Chiefs side under Andy Reid should have the edge on paper and on the field. These are the sort of teams the Chiefs need to beat if they are to make the NFL playoffs this season.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 4-2

 

Week 7: vs. Pittsburgh (home), Sunday, Oct 25 at 1 PM
In week 16 NFL betting, the Chiefs lost to the Steelers 20-12 at Heinz Arena. Another costly loss in a string of many in 2014 that made an NFL playoff spot nigh impossible by then. The Chiefs get the Pittsburgh Steelers at home this time, which is going to be an advantage they'll want to capitalise on. The Chiefs went 6-2 SU at home last season, improving to 11-5 in two seasons. If they can put pressure on Ben Roethlisberger as they did last season on Tom Brady in a 41-14 win, the Chiefs could take this game.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 5-2

 

Week 8: vs. Detroit (home), Sunday, Nov 1 at 9:30 AM
London is calling as Detroit and Kansas City collide across the pond. Right there, travel is going to be a factor for both teams. Kansas City is coming off a tough date with the Steelers while the Detroit Lions are coming off a seemingly straightforward home game with the Vikings. That said Mathew Stafford can blow hot and cold especially on the road where they went just 4-4 SU last season. It doesn't help that the Lions lost their best defensive player to the Miami Dolphins in free agency as well. In any event, this one is a complete tossup in our books.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 6-2

 

Week 9: BYE

 

Week 10: vs. Denver (road), Sunday, Nov 15 at 4:25 PM
The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off a bye, but the trip to the UK is going to take some adjustment time. Whichever way you slice it, this game is going to be a tough one for the Chiefs to win, never mind at Mile High where they haven't beaten Peyton Manning in six attempts.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record: 6-3

 

Week 11: vs. San Diego (road), Sunday, Nov 22 at 8:30 PM
Although the speculation about Philip Rivers, whose contract expires in 2015, is rife, we have to assume he's the starter for the Chargers unless otherwise told. Last season, the Chiefs swept the series with the Chargers, but this time they take the Chargers on in the midst of a difficult stretch. It's a third consecutive road game, second consecutive against a divisional rival. That's simply too much travel (including the trip to the UK) and a lot of pressure, never mind a Sunday Primetime game to boot. One wonders if they'll have legs left to deploy their lethal run game in San Diego effectively.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record: 6-4

 

Week 12: vs. Buffalo (home), Sunday, Nov 29 at 1 PM
Finally, the Chiefs are back home after a month on the road. Bills defense won't be a pushover but with question marks at quarterback, this is a matchup that the Chiefs will be looking to win down the stretch in their pursuit of a playoff berth.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 7-4

 

Week 13: vs. Oakland (road), Sunday, Dec 6 at 4:05 PM
Last season, the Chiefs dropped a crucial game in the dying minutes in Oakland. It was one of several games the Chiefs should have won but didn't. It also marked the first win of the season by the Raiders in week 12 NFL betting. Not an honor that sits well with Andy Reid, surely. This time he will make sure his side is more against an opponent (a divisional opponent, no less) that the Chiefs should be beating regularly.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 8-4

 

Week 14: vs. San Diego (home), Sunday, Dec 13 at 1 PM
The Chiefs welcome San Diego Chargers to Arrowhead in week 14 NFL betting. Last season, they swept the Chargers winning 23-20 on the road and 19-7 at home. By this point in the season, Andy Reid and the Chiefs will be looking to make a concentrated push and avoid the yips of previous seasons in which they were below .500 in the last seven games. If they can take advantage of a modest Chargers' offense (at least on paper based on last season's results), they should take the home win.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 9-4

 

Week 15: vs. Baltimore (road), Sunday, Dec 20 at 1 PM
A trip to Baltimore, the AFC North favorites, in the middle of December as the season winds down is going to be a tough ask for Alex Smith and the Chiefs. Last season, they lost to Pittsburgh in week 16 NFL betting, which cost them an NFL playoff spot. Although the stakes may not be as high this time, expect the Chiefs to go 0-2 against the best of the AFC North in two years.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record: 9-5

 

Week 16: vs. Cleveland (home), Sunday, Dec 27 at 1 PM
The Kansas City Chiefs welcome Johnny "Football" Manziel in week 16 NFL betting. Or will it be Josh McCown? Either way it doesn't figure to be a tough task to win at home. This could be a blowout at Arrowhead, not unlike the 34-0 blowout the Browns suffered against the Bengals last season in the final weeks of the NFL season.

NFL Picks: Win
Record: 10-5

 

Week 17 vs. Oakland (home), Sunday, Jan 3 at 1 PM
The Oakland Raiders descend on the Kansas City Chiefs in the final week of the NFL season. Although the Raiders figure to be a much improved team, they are still most likely to be a modest team in the broad spectrum of the NFL. This should be a straightforward win for the Chiefs as they attempt to make the NFL playoffs for the second time in three years.

NFL Picks: Loss
Record: 11-5

 

NFL Betting Verdict
By our way-too early game-by-game predictions we have Andy Reid and the Chiefs beating Vegas odds makers for a third straight season. We estimate an 11-5 season at best; hence, we're recommending the OVER 8.5 for your NFL picks at -125 at Bovada.