NFL Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Team Profile 2015

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, August 7, 2015 8:39 PM GMT

Friday, Aug. 7, 2015 8:39 PM GMT

Each day until the start of the 2015 NFL season, LT Profits will provide a team profile that can be referred to when making NFL picks. Today they look at the Kansas City Chiefs.

 


The 2015 NFL season is set to begin Thursday night, September 10th, but before we get to that point, we will be here presenting daily team profiles in advance of Kickoff Weekend in an attempt to assist you with your NFL picks. Today we are profiling the Kansas City Chiefs, who finished 9-7 in 2014 and in second place in the AFC West while failing to make the playoffs.

For starters, here is a summary of the Kansas City betting statistics over the past five seasons. Take note that all of these statistics are for regular season games only.

 

Kansas City Chiefs Betting Stats, 2010 through 2014

   Home  Away  Overall
ATS Overall  20-20     22-18  42-38
ATS Favorite  9-15  6-4  15-19
ATS Underdog  10-5  15-14  25-19
Avg. Margin  +0.8  -3.3  -1.3
Over – Under  14-26  16-23-1    30-49-1  
Avg. Total Score    39.4  41.8  40.6

 

The Chiefs have long had a reputation for being dangerous home underdogs, and that has continued over the last five years with Kansas City going 10-5, 66.7 percent ATS in that role. However, the Chiefs have been a dismal 37.5 percent ATS as home favorites. Kansas City has also been one of the best ‘under’ teams in the NFL at 62.0 percent overall including 65.0 percent at home.
Key Trend: The ‘under’ is 23-9-1, 71.2 percent when Kansas City is a conference underdog.

Up next we look at the Chiefs’ statistical summary for the 2014 season.

 

2014 Kansas City Chiefs Team Statistics (Per Game)

   Offense    Off. Rank   Defense    Def. Rank 
Points  22.1  15th 17.6  2nd
Rushing  119.0  11th  127.2  27th
Yds. Per Rush    4.5  5th  4.7  30th
Passing  200.1  29th  203.2  2nd
Yds Per Pass  6.5  21st  6.0  4th
Total Yards  319.1  24th  330.5  8th
Yds. Per Play  5.6  15th  5.4  8th

 

The Chiefs dropped off a bit after going 11-5 in 2013 thanks to a very beneficial schedule, but they were still in the playoff hunt until the season’s final weekend in 2014 while finishing 9-7. Furthermore they beat both teams that would eventually meet in the Super Bowl, the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks, over the course of the season.

Now let us take a peek at various Kansas City Future Odds for this 2015 season from several sportsbooks. You can view these and other future and prop odds on the Sportsbook Review Futures and Prop Bets Directory.

 

2015 Kansas City Chiefs NFL Futures

   5 Dimes  Bookmaker    Bovada  Heritage
Super Bowl Odds    +4500  +3803  +3300  +4500
AFC Conf. Odds  +1800   +1702  +1600  +1700
AFC West Odds  +380  +318  +400  +375
Win Total  8½ ov-115    8½ ov-112  8½ ov-135    8½ ov-115  

 

The books apparently expect the Chiefs to match their nine-win season of a year ago and they are the second choices behind the Denver Broncos to win the AFC West. First they must overcome a difficult early schedule though to avoid the season being over before it begins, as their first four games consist of road tests at Houston, Green Bay and Cincinnati as well as a tough home game vs. those Broncos.

 

Kansas City Chiefs Key Additions
Unbelievably, Alex Smith did not throw a single touchdown pass to a wide receiver during all of last season, so the Chiefs hope to put that dubious distinction to bed with the addition of receiver Jeremy Maclin. Kansas City also looked to upgrade the offensive line with the veteran additions of Ben Grubbs, Jeff Linkenbach and Paul Fanaika, as well as the selection of Mitch Morse in the NFL Draft.

Kansas City Chiefs Key Losses
The biggest losses on paper were wide receiver Dwayne Bowe and tight end Anthony Fasano, but Maclin is an upgrade over Bowe and Fasano was expendable after the emergence of future superstar Travis Kelce.

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