Super Bowl (+5000)
Although it would be farfetched to say the Chiefs could make it to the Super Bowl and win it, their NFL odds are a bit undervalued here. There are several teams with better odds at winning the Super Bowl who will probably finish with a worse record, most notably the Chargers in their own division. The Chiefs should probably be at the very most 45/1 and I would even argue that they could be 40/1 to win the Super Bowl. I also think this may be a precursor to how they will be valued in the regular season.
At Bet365, there is a large gap between the Chargers, Colts and Dolphins and the Chiefs in the future odds. One or more of those teams will finish with a worse record than the Chiefs, and I could even go as far to say that the Chiefs might be a playoff contender. Kansas City is the smallest NFL market, and they are always undervalued at the start of the season. Last season they were awful ATS and SU, but it was only because they were a playoff team the season before. After a 2-14 SU season last year, there is nowhere to go but up. The Chiefs have been making some nice moves this offseason, and I think they might make one of the best turnarounds of the 2013 season.
Don’t run and place your NFL picks on their future odds, but I do think the Chiefs will be undervalued in the regular season. They have very low expectations, and when you combine that with how small their market is, I don’t think anyone will notice the Chiefs getting any better.
They were really bad ATS last season at 5-11 ATS, but I think they can turn that around. I’ll stop short in saying they will be above .500 ATS this season, but it would be hard for them to be worse ATS this season than they were last year.
It may take a few years, but the Chiefs might be one of the better teams in the AFC in a few seasons. The entire conference is wide open. The number of really good teams in the AFC is shrinking, and there is going to be plenty of room for teams to start establishing themselves as AFC playoff teams. The Chiefs could start that run this season, so a bet on them to make the playoffs might be a nice long shot value bet.
For now however, we will have to wait until the season starts before we even start to smell value with the Chiefs. Hopefully Reid can turn this franchise around and give us some sneaky small market value.