NFL Picks: Kansas City Chiefs AFC West Divisional Odds

Jordan Sharp

Wednesday, May 29, 2013 6:45 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 29, 2013 6:45 PM UTC

In a division with Peyton Manning, will the Chiefs have any value in their divisional future odds this offseason? Let's find out if we should give this squad a look with our NFL picks.


Books with the best prices on 2013-14 NFL Futures

Kansas City had the misfortune of being the league’s whipping boy in 2012, and now they are rebuilding with Andy Reid as their head coach, and with a new season creeping over the horizon. The Chiefs are +700 underdogs at LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas to win the AFC West this season, and even though it would be hard to unseat Manning this year, that doesn’t mean the Chiefs won’t have value in other NFL betting areas.

The Chiefs are not yet a threat to Manning. They are almost certainly going to improve from their awful 2012, but as far as their NFL odds value in the AFC West, they are not. However in 2012 KC went 5-11 ATS during their 2-14 year, so can we expect them to improve in that area?

I think so, and while KC is one of the most improved teams in the NFL this offseason, I also think they will have one of the better turnaround ATS as well in the 2013 season. They have a lot going for them to do such a feat. For starters they are in Kansas City, a small dull little town on the western half of Missouri. No one pays much attention to them, especially a season after they went 2-14 SU and 5-11 ATS. 

What people tend to forget is that teams that might not be very good SU can have great sports betting value ATS. I think the Chiefs may be perfect examples of that come the 2013 pre and regular seasons. Despite being 5-11 ATS, 2-6 ATS on the road and 3-9 ATS against the AFC, the Chiefs were much better at home. They were 3-4 ATS as home underdogs last season, and I bet we can expect similar value at home for the Chiefs in 2013. KC is playing Jacksonville on the road to open the 2013 season, but they are favored on the road by a point or two, so it remains to be seen on Week 1. 

Kansas City was able to resign Branden Albert this offseason which was huge for them. Along with bringing in Alex Smith they also made some nice value signings like Dunta Robinson. I’m not saying the Chiefs are going to be the Redskins, Rams or Seahawks or 2013 and go 11-5 ATS, but I could see a 9-7 or 10-6 ATS season from them if the right things happen. The list of Pro Bowl players on this roster might surprise some people considering how bad they were last season, but we are only two years removed from the Chiefs going 9-7 ATS and now three seasons removed from the 2010 season where the Chiefs went 10-6 SU and 9-7 ATS also.

I think we have to keep a keen eye out for the Chiefs in the 2013 season both on the field and in the books. I think the Chiefs may have some of the most NFL odds value this upcoming season.

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