Last season the Chiefs put on what will be known as one of the best turnarounds in NFL history, however after improving their season win total by nine in one season, will the Chiefs start to slide some? A better question could be; “are their NFL Odds overvalued?”
Super Bowl (+5000)
Bovada sportsbook has some really good NFL Odds when it comes to futures, and while it may not help you much to actually place a wager there, it may help to look and see what Bovada has, before going line shopping elsewhere. I have found these numbers to be pretty sharp, and the Chiefs’ Super Bowl NFL Odds are just that. At +5000, the Chiefs are behind the Chargers, a team they were better than last season, and despite the fact that San Diego got further in the playoffs, the Chiefs were the better team. However in 2014, I’m not sure if that’s the case, and the NFL Odds show it. Kansas City lost a good number of starters on defense, and with their offense in question some, it may not be the best year to wager on the Chiefs. They had 11 wins last season, however this season Bovada has their season win total at 8.
If most sportsbooks are projecting that big of a drop in the Chiefs’ season win totals, it’s hard to imagine them being a solid betting pick in any sort of futures this offseason. Most books have them behind the Chargers in their division, and having to play Phillip Rivers and Peyton Manning in four of their 16 games is going to make it that much harder. On top of whom they have to play, the Chiefs lost some key parts of their 2013 playoff team. Brandon Albert, their best offensive lineman from last season is gone, and three of their defensive starters are also gone. Akeem Jordan is now in Washington, while Quintin Demps and Brandon Flowers went to New York and San Diego respectfully. Replacing those three guys is going to be very hard for the Chiefs. Although they may still threaten for a playoff spot in a weaker AFC, the Chiefs don’t have the upside, or the element of surprise that worked so much in their favor in 2013.
AFC West (+550)
Last season the Chiefs were just a couple of wins away from beating out the Broncos for the AFC West, and while that may have been an anomaly, Kansas City will still have a pretty good team this season. In 2013, they were only 9-8 ATS including the playoffs, despite going 11-5 SU in the regular season. Even though they were tremendously undervalued throughout last season, they barely finished the season above .500 ATS. This season the public might overvalue the Chiefs early in the season because of their success in 2013. This entire division has a tough strength of schedule this season, and KC is no different. They are ranked 7th in the league in strength of schedule, and looking at their schedule, you’ll know why. In their first five weeks, they have to play at Denver, San Francisco and Miami, while playing a home game against the Patriots in between. Needless to say, if you’re thinking to take the Chiefs as your NFL Futures betting pick this season, I would rapidly start to change your mind. If they are above .500 this year, I will be surprised.