NFL Picks: Jets' Winning Streak Will Continue Saturday Night vs. Cowboys

Teddy Covers

Tuesday, December 15, 2015 8:01 PM GMT

Our NFL handicapper checks the New York Jets vs. Dallas Cowboys game for Saturday. Read this betting preview that comes with a free NFL pick on the spread, join us inside.

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NFL Picks: Jets -3
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

New York Jets vs. Dallas Cowboys
This is most assuredly not a great ‘spot’ for the road favorite. Since a midseason slump sent Todd Bowles squad to four losses in a six week span, New York has bounced back with three straight victories. Their blowout over the Titans on Sunday was the best of the bunch, 60 minutes of excellent football. In the NFL, it’s not easy for teams to put back-to-back games like that together, especially when they hit the highway on a short week. 

And with the Jets coming off a blowout win and the Cowboys coming off a blowout loss, you already know which way the public money is going to flow here. The Jets are a clear ‘public’ play in a single event TV game. It’s generally a ‘negative expectation’ type of wager to support teams like the Jets in spots like this one.

That being said, the Cowboys have one of the weakest home field edges in all of football; consistent money losers at Jerry’s World for the better part of the last decade. They are 1-5 SU in Dallas this year, the lone win coming only after a Giants meltdown in the final minutes all the way back in Week 1. And the Cowboys are 1-5 ATS at home this year,  covering only one spread in their five losses.

This isn’t new or different. Dating back to 2011 (I could have gone back further, but you get my point), Dallas is a truly woeful 12-26 ATS at home – Jacksonville or Tampa Bay territory (two other teams with little or no homefield edge in recent seasons).  I certainly don’t mind taking road favorites against teams that have little or no homefield advantage.

And the Cowboys dismal effort in Green Bay on Sunday had all the markings of a team hoisting up a white flag. The Cowboys run defense lost their way, beaten up at the line of scrimmage, with poor tackling from their back seven. 

And Dallas can’t trade points with anyone when Matt Cassel is behind center. Cassel  has started seven games for Dallas, the Cowboys have averaged 15 points per game in those outings, scoring more than 20 only once. He’s thrown only five TD passes while averaging only 6.3 yards per attempt with a QB rating of 73.5. To put that number in perspective, Colin Kaepernick had a 78.5 QB rating before he got benched, and no full time NFL starter has been worse. Dallas is a clear ‘bet-against’ in this spot, mitigating many of my concerns about the Jets in this spot.

Meanwhile, with Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall both healthy, Jets QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is probably working with the best receiving corps of his career. Coordinator Chan Gailey has the Jets offense ranked in the Top 10 right now, showing excellent balance when Chris Ivory has holes to run through. Their defense has dominated the last six quarters, since their ugly first half against the Giants; a stop unit that is capable of getting that one key stop with the spread on the line in the fourth quarter. Take the Jets as the NFL pick against the NFL odds. Bet this one sooner, not later!