I have three prop bets for you tonight, all of which I think hold a lot of value for our NFL picks.
Steven Ridley O/U 80.5 rushing yards
Ridley found himself in the doghouse last week after fumbling and basically being completely ineffective in Buffalo. However, his stay outside was not long, because the Patriots lost Shane Vereen until at least Week 10 with a broken bone in his wrist. Ridley is basically the only solid tailback the Patriots have left, and if the Patriots are as far ahead as some think they’ll be, Ridley should get plenty of carries in this game.
The Jets did play solid against the run against the Bucs, however Tampa lacks the fluent passing game of Tom Brady and the Patriots. The Jets will have to commit to stopping the pass more in this game, which will likely leave some holes for Ridley. As long as he holds onto the ball this week, he should find himself at 81 or more rushing yards by the end of the game. Plus, before he was taken out for fumbling, he was on pace for a good day, averaging over five yards per carry against the Bills. The Pats will likely lean a bit more on the running game now that they are at home on a short week, so take the ‘Over’.
My Pick: ‘Over’ 80.5 (-125)
Kenbrell Thompkins O/U 68.5 receiving yards
This pick has even more value than the Ridley pick. Thompkins saw 14 targets come his way in Week 1, and now without Danny Amendola in this game, that number could go up. He didn’t have a very good showing last week only hauling in four of his 14 targets. However the young man was playing in his first NFL game on the road, and with the pressure on. This week against a Jets team that might be worse than the Bills, I think Thompkins can catch a few more passes, and get into the 70 yards receiving range.
Despite only catching 4/14 passes, he still amassed 42 yards receiving against Buffalo. Remember, he got 14 targets, and that was with Amendola in for most of the game. Julian Edelman will get his regardless, but if the first game jitters are gone for Thompkins, I think he will find the ball coming his way just as much or more than last week, and he should catch it this time. Someone has to catch the ball for the Pats, and if the preseason was any indicator, this bet might have serious sports betting value.
My Pick: ‘Over; 68.5 (-125)
3 Unanswered scores
We were rather successful in this type of bet last week. In three games where I recommended a play on this type of prop, I cashed two of them and both were at NFL odds of +120 or higher. This game we don’t have as much value, however with the price of a ‘No’ answer, the profitability is almost twice as good.
Neither the Patriots nor the Jets scored three unanswered times last week, and I think it will happen again. Plus at over +200, the value meter is going off. New England could struggle some in the early going, and even if they do blow out New York, I think the Jets will find enough garbage time to prevent three unanswered scores. The field goal is their friend in New York, and at the price we’re getting, a value bet should be made.My Pick: ‘No’ (+215)