The NFL Regular Season is here! Check out our Week 2 Opening Odds Report!
The Las Vegas Hotel opened the NFL odds for this Thursday matchup at New England -11 playing at home. Offshore sportsbooks we checked were higher, with the Patriots favored by a dozen and 44 and 44.5 were the most common totals witnessed initially. How does this translate to our NFL picks?
The Series History
Since 1992, New England is 13-8 SU, including playoffs conflicts, and 13-7-1 ATS against the Jets. In the past three years, the Pats are 5-2 SU with four covers, including winning the last four in a row. During this span, Bill Belichick’s crew has outscored New York by almost 16 points a contest (15.7), giving credence to the high spread.
Perhaps more importantly, the total has gone 'Over' the odds makers' total seven straight times.
Examining the Line Makers Releases
New England needed a late come-from-behind victory to hold off Buffalo 23-21 as 10.5-point road favorites in their season opener. The Patriots are still a very public team and there is little doubt the opening number reflects the odds makers wanting to tempt bettors to take the other side, figuring they will see an ample amount of money supporting the home team.
Though the Jets might not be America’s team, nevertheless, there are a lot of New Yorkers and folks in Florida who still stand by the Green and White and they will help balance the action to a certain degree if the numbers go too high.
The Pats have averaged being just over a nine-point sports betting favorite the past three meetings at Gilette Stadium and while the jury is still out on how good New England actually is, the Flyboys are considered the weaker team by a good margin.
For those who keep exact home and away numbers to build power ratings, they have New England giving four points at home (three is the typical average) and making them a touchdown or somewhat higher for the balance of the favorites role fits conventional thinking.
The total released at around 44 points is the lowest since 2010, when the two games were 39.5 and 44 points respectively and both went Over the number. The drop from 47 and 47.5 last year is a direct reflection of rookie Geno Smith’s inexperience and questions about Brady working with many new working parts.
Are the Patriots a Good or Bad Bet?
The Patriots has 431 total yards against the Bills, which means Tom Brady and company had no to problem moving the ball, but they had three turnovers. The most obvious difference in watching Belichick’s offense was the lack of explosiveness. Not having both tight ends Rob Gronkowski and jailed Aaron Hernandez takes away big play potential for the Patriots.
With many new faces, growing pains were expected for Brady to feel comfortable and it showed in the opener. Including the opening week this season, home favorites over a touchdown the first 13 weeks of the season are 55-70 ATS the past four years.
Are the Jets a Good or Bad Bet?
Going on the road on a short week is always a tough trick. New offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg wants to establish a pass-first offense, which is questionable with a first-year quarterback or even Mark Sanchez. Coach Ryan has promised a Top 5 defense this year and while a smirk is well deserved, the Jets might be catching Brady and an unsettled offense at the right time. The key is allowing field goals and not touchdowns to stay under the number
Make sure to read SBRForum's future spread pick and total pick articles about this Thursday night's contest.
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