NFL Picks: Jets vs. Patriots Betting the Spread Thursday Night

Doug Upstone

Thursday, September 12, 2013 5:18 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 12, 2013 5:18 PM UTC

With New York in full descent, this has become just another division game among the 96 which will be played this year. If so, then who's the winning sports pick in this game? Read on to find out.

The NFL Regular Season is here! Read our Week 2 Opening Odds Report!

Privately, Ryan is far from pleased with this roster (something he has occasionally slipped up about in public). What do the NFL odds tell us about this game?

The Jets Feeling Better, at Least for a Week

After grabbing a 15-14 lead against Tampa Bay, the Flyboys were pushed around and thrown over by the Buccaneers and they gave up the lead as Rian Lindell kicked a 37-yard field goal with only 34 seconds remaining in the contest. Rookie starter Geno Smith was poised in the moment and threw a strike to tight end Kellen Winslow for 25 yards. Two plays later, Smith was running out of bounds on a ten-yard scamper when he was shoved by Bucs linebacker Lavonte David, who did not keep his poise.

This gave kicker Nick Folk a shot at a 48-yard field goal and New York left the field with tremendous joy, having been handed a gift and taking full advantage of it as four-point home sports betting underdog.

There's more to this game! Check out our Jets vs. Patriots Opening Odds report!

Growing Pains for New England

Even as great as Tom Brady has been, to have basically a new cast of pass catchers, at least the beginning of the season, was going to need some adjustment.

This was very evident in Buffalo for the first game, as the veteran quarterback threw for a relatively low percentage against the Bills defense for 55.7 percent (29-52). When he needed to, Brady was on target in the fourth quarter and found the hot hand in newly acquired Danny Amendola.

Injuries have curtailed Amendola’s effectiveness the past four seasons and he left in the first half with a tight groin. He came back and exhibited toughness, which had to impress his new teammates, hauling in seven passes (five for first downs) in the second half on a gimpy groin. Brady understood who he could count on with the contest in the balance and Amendola was the only New England receiver to catch the ball (four times) on the game-winning drive.

While this speaks to the wideout’s grit, he has a short week to recover from an injury which could get worse on any movement down the field.

The Pats also learned running back Shane Vereen will require surgery for a broken bone in his hand and be out a couple of weeks. Vereen plays the pass-catching role along with being a runner and the next man up is recently re-signed Leon Washington, who lacks the size to be an effective runner.

For more info on Thursday Night Football, read our Jets vs. Patriots Betting the Total article!

Matchup Numbers

The Patriots are being absolutely pounded, starting at -11 Sunday night and moved to -13 24 hours later. The total has remained relatively stable at 44.5 or 44. New England is 14-9 at home the past 20 years against New York with playoff games included, yet are only 9-13-1 against the spread.

What to Watch For

Even though it’s a division contest, it is hard to imagine New England will be all that focused, even in the home opener. Bill Belichick will focus his team on improvement and let the final score take care of itself. Brady and the passing game will be out to find an early quick rhythm and possibly try to involve the new receivers more. RB Stevan Ridley will likely see more action, yet will fine the hard plastic benches again with more fumbles.

The Jets do not provide the kind of offense New England has to spend a great deal of time on and Smith will have a smaller call sheet to work with on a short week. The Patriots could well use a fair amount of blitzing to see how Smith reacts.

Besides winning, Gang Green had two positive take-ways from the first contest.

Geno Smith did not play like the situation was beyond his grasp and never lost his composure, which is a building block. The Jets offense line has to do a much better job in run blocking because having Smith as the leading rusher won’t help you beat the Patriots.

As usual, Ryan will attempt to bring the heat up the middle to bother Brady. Given the New England passing game at the moment, the Jets secondary should be able to stay with this crew.

Final Outcome

This is certainly not among my favorite games of the week to wager on; but, at this juncture, I would rather take the points for my NFL picks than give them.

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NFL Pick: Bet the Jets +13 on the point spread at Bovada

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