NFL Picks: Jets vs. Falcons Betting the Spread

Jordan Sharp

Friday, October 4, 2013 2:30 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 4, 2013 2:30 PM UTC

Looking at the NFL odds, the finale for Week 5 in the NFL regular season is an intriguing matchup, as the Falcons are set to host the Jets.

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The Falcons lost at home this past week to the Patriots, and almost never do they lose two games in a row at home. However do they have what it takes with a banged up team to cover -9 or higher against the Jets? New York is dealing with problems of their own, so let’s take a look at all the factors leading up to this game, and see if there is any value in the NFL odds.


Injury bug

While the bug is biting both teams right now, it has done its most damage on the offensive end for both teams. Steven Jackson is still not practicing for the Rams and he looks to be out until after their Week 6 bye week. The Falcons have also of course been dealing with an injury to Roddy White.

White has been nursing a sore ankle ever since he injured it in the preseason, and although he has been playing, he has not been effective. However White played almost the entire game this past Sunday, and even though his stat line didn’t show it, he looks as if he is as close as he’s been to full health all season. It would not surprise me one bit to see White put up a big game in primetime Monday night.

The Jets aren’t in that good of shape either, on offense especially. They will be without their top two receivers in this game, and against the Falcons, that spells bad news for this already below average offense. Stephen Hill sustained a concussion this past week and he is looking doubtful already this week.

Also out for this game will be Santonio Holmes. Holmes had a breakout game a week ago, but without him for this week, rookie Geno Smith is going to have very few, if any reliable pass catching options. While the Atlanta defense isn’t great, it’s good enough to throw around a bad offense like New York’s.

The Sharp Pick

New York is only 1-4 SU in their last five road games, and even though they play each other very little, the Jets are only 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall against the Falcons. The Falcons on the other hand, even though they lost their most recent home game, the Georgia Dome is not somewhere many road teams come in and win. Including last week’s SU loss, the Falcons are 13-3 SU in their last 16 games in Atlanta.

That being said, I think Atlanta is the play here. The football betting odds at certain sportsbooks are still giving us -9 Falcons, and I think that’s a good enough sports betting value here. The Jets’ defense is going to be the only thing they have going for them, and even that won’t be enough to cover against the Falcons. Atlanta’s offense is too fast and too good, and if they are able to get a lead early in this one, the Jets will have zero chance of staying with Atlanta. Smith is simply not ready to go toe to toe on the road with Matt Ryan and the Falcons.

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NFL Pick: Bet the Falcons -9 on the spread, at William Hill

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