NFL Picks: Jets vs. Colts Opening Betting Odds Report

Jason Lake

Monday, September 14, 2015 9:29 PM GMT

The Indianapolis Colts came out flat in Week 1, but that hasn't prevented the sharps from putting Indianapolis in their Week 2 football picks against the New York Jets.

Props From:  5Dimes | BetOnline | BookMaker | Bovada | Heritage | GTbets | WagerWeb | SportsBetting | BetDSI

Jets To Score First +140 (best line at BetOnline)
Colts To Score First -155 (best line at 5Dimes)
Longerst FG 44½ Ov -115 (best line at betDSI)
Longerst FG Un +100 (best line at Bookmaker)
Highest Score 1st Half -110 (best line at 5Dimes)
High Score 2H + OT -105 (best line at BetOnline)
1st Score TD -155  (best line at SportsBetting)
FG or Safety +145  (best line at 5Dimes)

Jason's 2015 record as of Sept. 13: 4-1 ATS; 1-1 Total

What have you done with our Indianapolis Colts? This can't possibly be the same team that went 11-5 in each of the first three years of the Chuck Pagano-Andrew Luck Era. Surely that team wouldn't have folded up like a cheap suitcase against the Buffalo Bills of all people. Yet that's what happened this past Sunday; Luck threw a pair of interceptions and the running game came up dry in a 27-14 final.

Good for us, at least – we were on the Bills as a possible upset special, and they cashed in as 1-point home dogs on the closing line. Now the Colts have to regroup and prepare for their 2015 home debut, which happens to be our next can't-miss episode of Monday Night Football (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). The New York Jets supply the competition; as we go to press, Indianapolis has already been bumped “up” from –7 (–105) to –7.5 (+120) with about 60 percent of early consensus on the Colts.
 

Indianapolis Colts: Premium Unleaded
We use “up” with the quotation marks because the price on the Colts has actually gotten better. According to the fair prices at Wizard of Odds, that half-point off the magic number seven should be worth 14 cents. For that matter, many of the books on our NFL odds board are offering the Colts at –6.5 with the usual –110 vigorish. That's also a bargain compared to –7 (–105). You normally have to pay a much bigger premium to shave off that unsightly half-point.

There isn't enough data yet to produce an expanded consensus report, so we're not sure yet how light the early trading is. This could be another case of pro bettors putting a little money down on one side, attempting to nudge that spread beyond the magic number before coming in heavily on the other side later in the week. Or maybe they just really like the Colts. There's plenty to like in a team that's gone 24-17-2 ATS under Pagano, regular season and playoffs.

 

New York Jets: Johnny Can't Read
Plus, we're talking about the Jets here. But the Jets sure looked good in their season opener against the Cleveland Browns, winning 31-10 as 3.5-point home faves. Should we be impressed, though? The Browns had to go with No. 2 QB Johnny Manziel after starter Josh McCown suffered a concussion in the first quarter. Manziel turned the ball over three times, as he is wont to do.

New York's offense was on point, mind you. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw two touchdown passes with just one pick, and Chris Ivory rumbled for another pair of TDs as Todd Bowles won his first game as an NFL head coach. Will the Jets keep up the momentum in Week 2? Good question, one that we'll try to answer later this week with our NFL pick against the spread and total.