NFL Picks: Jets vs. Colts Monday Night Over/Under Predictions

Jason Lake

Saturday, September 19, 2015 7:04 PM GMT

Saturday, Sep. 19, 2015 7:04 PM GMT

The Indianapolis Colts went UNDER in Week 1, but the way they played, the OVER might be the right football pick for Monday night's game against the New York Jets.

Props From:  5Dimes | BetOnline | BookMaker | Bovada | Heritage | GTbets | WagerWeb | SportsBetting | BetDSI

Jets To Score First +140 (best line at BetOnline)
Colts To Score First -155 (best line at 5Dimes)
Longerst FG 44½ Ov -115 (best line at betDSI)
Longerst FG Un +100 (best line at Bookmaker)
Highest Score 1st Half -110 (best line at 5Dimes)
High Score 2H + OT -105 (best line at BetOnline)
1st Score TD -155  (best line at SportsBetting)
FG or Safety +145  (best line at 5Dimes)

Jason's 2015 record as of Sept. 19: 5-3 ATS; 3-2 Total
 

So the Indianapolis Colts laid an egg in Week 1. Rex Ryan and the Buffalo Bills stymied Indianapolis 27-14 (UNDER 44.5) at Ralph Wilson Stadium, forcing three turnovers and limiting RB Frank Gore to 31 yards rushing. That's some weak sauce right there. After a display like that, it wasn't too difficult to recommend the New York Jets as 7-point road dogs for Monday night's matchup (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) at the New Meadowlands.

Perhaps the UNDER would make a nice combo bet for your NFL picks. Our NFL odds reports show a slight lean in that direction on a total of 46.5 points, down from 47 at the open. Dang, 47 is a magic number for totals, too. Good thing there are still a few books with 47-point totals as we go to press. All right, nice work, let's hit the bar.
 

I Can't Adjust
There is one thing, though. Maybe the Colts didn't blow quite as hard on offense as it seemed. Sure, they got their helmets handed to them, but the Bills were already the No. 2-ranked defense in the league last year at Football Outsiders, and now Ryan is their coach. We have to adjust our evaluation to account for Buffalo's defensive stoutness. Cue the DVOA stats: Football Outsiders ranked Indy's offense No. 12 overall in Week 1.

Meanwhile, the Colts defense allowed Tyrod Taylor to shine in his Buffalo debut, throwing a gorgeous 51-yard touchdown pass to Percy Harvin to open up the scoring. Taylor was good on his feet, too, scrambling for 31 yards to keep another TD drive alive late in the first half. Put the stats in the DVOA blender, hit frappé, and Indy's defense ranked No. 29 in efficiency last week. So we should put the OVER in our NFL picks, then?
 

Let My Johnson Go
Well... there is the matter of T.Y. Hilton. The leading receiver on the Colts (82 catches, seven TD last year) had to leave last week's game in the fourth quarter with a bruised left knee. Early reports suggested Hilton could miss a few weeks, but while the Colts are expressing optimism that he'll play Monday night, Hilton was held out of practice again on Friday.

Then you have to consider Indy's special teams. The return game was virtually non-existent against the Bills, making Andrew Luck's job that much harder. But we're going to give the OVER a very small bet anyway. Getting back indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium should help out the Colts returners as well as the offense, Andre Johnson can do some things in Hilton's place after getting targeted just four times in Week 1, and the Jets aren't expected to have RC Antonio Cromartie (knee) back for this game. Give us a ping, Vasili. One ping only, please.

Free NFL Pick: Take OVER 46.5 (–102) at 5Dimes

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