NFL Picks: Jets to Be Buffaloed After Hosting Bills on Thursday

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, November 12, 2015 7:19 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 12, 2015 7:19 PM UTC

NFL Thursday Night Football is here again, and this time we find ourselves facing an emotion-filled matchup when HC Ryan comes back to see his former team. Check the free NFL picks inside.

Buffalo Bills vs. NY Jets (-2-) 8:00 ET NFL NTWK
The Buffalo Bills make the short cross-state trip to face the NY Jets in the Meadowlands. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:25 ET this Thursday on the NFL Network. This is a critical divisional matchup, as the Bills stand 4-4 SU, trailing the 5-3 SU Jets by one game in the standings. This game also features the return of current HC Ryan to face his former team. Ryan worked 6 years as head man for the Jets with a 46-50 SU record. 

The Jets soared from the gate with a 4-1 SU ATS record. The wins were all against teams who are sub .500. They followed that start against weak competition with trips to New England and Oakland. Their highly rated defense, at that time, did not fare nearly as well. In the 0-2 SU road trip, they allowed 30 points to New England and 34 to Oakland in a 14 point loss. In that game, they were torched repeatedly by emerging Raiders’ QB Carr. Last week, the Jets returned home with a (28-23) win over still, struggling Jacksonville. A closer inspection of the stats told us that win came courtesy of a (+4) net TO margin vs. the Jags. More troubling is that Jacksonville outrushed NY 98-29, out passed them 338-261 for a commanding 436-240 yardage edge. None of those are positive signs, as the Jets move forward.

Not that the Bills fared much better against the improving Jacksonville offense, as it was 3 weeks ago that Buffalo fell (34-31) to the Jags in London. Following the obligatory bye week after London, the Bills returned a much healthier team. They dominated Miami last week, for the 2nd time this season, by a score of (33-17), outrushing the Dolphins 266-106.  Key to that success was the return of No.1 QB Taylor and the overland success of the running back duo of McCoy and Williams, each who cracked the 100 yard barrier.


The Pick
In the zig-zag world of the NFL, it would be easy to call for a reversal of form with the NY Jets. But, their problems against quality offenses have surfaced in the previous 3 weeks following their easy opening slate. As a result, I will suggest you follow the momentum of the Buffalo Bills, who are clearly a far better team with QB Taylor at the helm and a running game that averages 30/142/4.8 (among the best in the NFL). The bottom line here is that the mini-upset is no surprise to this bureau. I invite you to put the NFL odds in your favor in playing my Thursday night NFL pick on the Buffalo Bills, as they win a hard-fought, defensive battle against the rival NY Jets.

Free NFL Pick: Bills to win at The Greek

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