NFL Picks: Jets +7.5 is the Side to Bet for Week 2 Monday Night Football

Nikki Adams

Friday, September 18, 2015 6:03 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 18, 2015 6:03 PM UTC

Can the Colts bounce back in week 2 NFL betting when they take on the Jets under the lights on Monday Night Football? Find out as we breakdown this matchup and serve up NFL picks.

NY Jets (1-0, 0-0 away)
To enthusiastic J-E-T-S-J-E-T-S- J-E-T-S chants, Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets calmly took apart a rather underwhelming Cleveland Brown last Sunday en route to an emphatic 31-10 victory that saw the Jets come through as the -175 NFL odds favorites and, in turn, cover handily the 3-point spread trading at Bet365, amongst other sportsbooks.

There was a worrisome moment early in the game, shortly after the Cleveland Browns went up 7-0, when Fitzpatrick’s throw was picked by Tashaun Gipson, but newly acquired WR Brandon Marshall acrobatically ripped the ball out of Gipson’s greedy paws for a fumble recovery, allowing the Jets to lay siege on the Cleveland 9. Milling in the red zone, a quick play later and Chris Ivory snuck in with a 10-yard tying touchdown that turned the game on a dime and saw the Jets take off from then onwards.

Overall, it was a striking performance by the Jets. Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker each had touchdowns in the game and Ryan Fitzpatrick went 15-of-24 for 179 yards and 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. The veteran quarterback Fitzpatrick, who provisionally (or not?) takes over the starting job while Geno Smith nurses a busted jaw for the next few months, seemed right at home with his new team, which has a lot to do with those aforementioned weapons at his disposal (Marshall and Decker) and familiarity with the coaching staff. Not to mention the fact that he’s passed through several teams over his career, making him a quick study with a knack for adapting easily.

Now that the Jets have registered their first “W” of the season, they are in fine fettle as they get set to travel south, but they are slated for a much tougher challenge in week 2 NFL betting, on a Monday Night no less, against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Yes, the Colts lost their opener (manhandled they were by Buffalo, but we’ll get to that later on), but if you thought that might make a difference to the bottom line on the NFL odds board or that it might set up the Jets more favorably for this matchup, then you’ve not been paying attention to Super Bowl 50 futures at all.

As one of top favorites to win it all (so say the bookies), the Colts are massive favorites in this game. So much so, it might be a bit – dare we be so churlish – deflating for Jets fans. In fact, early NFL betting markets opened with a 5.5-point spread with the Colts to the good at home. Since then the line has only been increasing, up to 7-points at most sportsbooks and, even, as high as 7.5-points at 5Dimes and a few others. What does that say but that a reversal of fortunes for this pair in week 2 is expected on the NFL betting floor?

Indianapolis Colts (0-1, 0-0 home)
The not-for-long-winless Colts were manhandled on opening day by the Buffalo Bills in a 27-14 loss that saw them fail to cover as the 2.5-point road faves. The oft-grim-faced Rex Ryan, during his tenure as the Jets’ coach, couldn’t stop busting out the grins in his first post-game interview as the new head coach of the Bills. Heck, to add insult to injury, he brazenly bemoaned the fact that the Bills didn’t get the shutout in the week 1 mauling of the highly-fancied Colts. (For what it’s worth, the Bills were our choice NFL pick in week 1).

Most ominous for the Colts was the fact that Tyrod Taylor outplayed, outshot and outmuscled Andrew Luck. When news of the unheralded quarterback Taylor, a Ravens understudy for four years or so, getting the start made the rounds, nobody expected much from him in his NFL debut. Certainly, they questioned Rex Ryan’s decision to trust in an untried and unproven quarterback, most feeling that by doing so he’d practically gift-wrapped the “W” for Chuck Pagano and the Colts. (There’s no truth to the rumour that the chuckling heard around the league when Taylor was announced the starter came from Pagano.)

But the numbers don’t lie: Taylor went 14-or-19 for 195 yards and 1 touchdown with ZERO interceptions or sacks. He finished with a total QBR of 88.2 and a passer QBR rating of 123.8. Andrew Luck went 26-of-49 for 243 yards and two touchdowns, but he was intercepted twice and sacked twice. His total QBR was a pedestrian 38.7 and his passer QBR rating was 63.6.

Given how glacial and disconnected the Colts looked last Sunday, the price on a Colts win is mighty steep – from an opening -280 NFL odds they have swelled to a high of -330 NFL odds. Not that it seems to have stemmed the tide of money coming down the wire as it did in week 1 NFL betting.

As it is, they have the lion’s share with 63% money taking the hefty 7-point spread and the straight up win. Obviously, the thinking is that the Colts are a class apart. That they’ll mete out a hefty beating on the Jets, not unlike the mauling by the Bills they were treated to in Buffalo. After all, the idea that the Colts would start a season 0-2 SU is anathema to most NFL betting fans.

Yet, that’s exactly what the Colts did last term when they lost to Denver in week 1 and Philadelphia in week 2. Although it did mark the first time in Luck’s NFL career that he lost back-to-back games, it was a run of form that went back to the preseason, in which the Colts lost all four games. This term the Colts went 1-3 SU in the preseason with the majority of the starters looking as if their legs were not yet fully returned from holidaying and Luck’s arm showing all the attacking subtlety of a Howard Stern interview. A week later, they open the season on a loss.  Hmmm…

NFL Betting Verdict:
NFL analysts and experts alike repeatedly warn about putting too much stock into early results, especially week 1 upsets. But how can we not when they were so spectacular in their own individual right. At the very least it must instil doubt about the current NFL betting outlook, making the Colts look rather overrated as the 7.5-point faves and, in turn, the Jets rather underrated.

Colts may be Super Bowl 50 faves in the eyes of many NFL bettors, but the painful truth for those diehard-Colts-fans is that they looked wholly off form and colour in week 1 NFL betting. Simply on that score, we’re fading the Colts and shading the Jets as the +7.5 underdogs against the spread, banking on NFL trends that reveal almost 80% of games are decided by five points or less (something to that effect) come through for us.

NFL Picks: Jets +7.5 (-135) at 5Dimes

comment here