NFL Picks: Jets (-1) Have Advantage Over Dolphins at Neutral Site

Swinging Johnson

Wednesday, September 30, 2015 12:18 PM GMT

The Brits will get a taste of American football at Wembley Stadium where AFC East rivals the Jets & Dolphins collide. As we review the odds let's analyze which team is the best NFL pick.

New York Jets (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)
The NFL odds said that the New York Jets were three-point favorites last week but when the final whistle sounded they walked off their home turf 24-17 straight-up losers to the Philadelphia Eagles. It was a sobering dose of reality for Gang Green after winning their first two games by wide margins. Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for a pair of touchdowns but also tossed three picks. It was a one-dimensional attack for the Jets as Fitzpatrick went to the air 58 times, completing on 35 occasions, for 283 yards. Conversely the rushing attack was more of a polite inconvenience for Philadelphia who held New York to 47 yards on the ground.

The defense watched the Eagles ring up 24 points in the first half but kept them off the scoreboard the rest of the way as New York clawed their way to within a touchdown. Unfortunately for the home fans it was not to be and when the game was done it was reported that All-World cornerback Darrelle Revis tweaked a hamstring late in the game. That was just another nagging injury on top of a pulled groin that could slow down the veteran superstar.

 

Miami Dolphins (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
This season has not gone anywhere near the way head coach Joe Philbin envisioned when they broke training camp. After a 17-10 road win in Washington the Fish got bitten by the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars and then suffered 41-14 blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills last week in their first home game of the season. Ryan Tannehill, who was in the midst of setting a franchise record for most consecutive passes without an incompletion, saw that streak come to a halt at 160 when he tossed three interceptions that were a result of a swarming Buffalo defensive rushing attack.

The Dolphins have nowhere to go but up at this point. Statistically the only thing they have done well is pass the ball as they rank 10th in the league averaging over 271 passing yards per game. But that's where the good news comes to an abrupt end. Miami is ranked 24th in rushing averaging 72.7 yards per game, 16th defending the pass allowing an average of 246 yards per game and 29th against the run surrendering 145 yards per contest. Perhaps it is the run defense that has been the most colossal disappointment thus far with defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh signed in the offseason to make that run stop unit impenetrable.

 

Betting Analysis
Both teams will have a long way to travel after licking their wounds from Week 3 losses. However there is one team in my mind that has a decided advantage over the other which is why I have to scratch my head just a bit that the NFL odds makers chose to make this one pretty much a coin flip. Based on what I have seen I believe the Jets have it all over the Dolphins in just about every aspect of the game. This game is not being played in Miami and there is no home field advantage.

The preseason hype surrounding the Dolphins is lingering which is why some may include them in their NFL picks based on nothing more than a preconceived notion that the team just has to get better. I don't believe that because I was never convinced this was a good team to begin with and when playing a strong defense like the Jets I am just not sure how they will compete.

 

Some stats for your consideration:
Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.

Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.

Dolphins are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Dolphins are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.

Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.

Jets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.

Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

 

NFL Pick: Play the Jets (-125) at 5Dimes