NFL Picks: Jaguars Will Meow in Pain When Crushed by Jets Sunday

Wednesday, November 4, 2015 6:50 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015 6:50 PM UTC

The New York Jets are unsure who their starting QB will be on Sunday for their Week 9 meeting with the Jacksonville Jaguars. Let's review the odds and choose a winning NFL pick for this game.

Odds Overview
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets [Sunday 18:00] (CBS, Directv 707, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST): The New York Jets (4-3 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday for this inter-conference Week 9 game. Presently (Tuesday evening), there are almost no sportsbooks posting a Point Spread or Total, although CG Technology here in Las Vegas has the host Jets as solid 6-point favorites with the Total in this game at 42 (CG Technology). The Money Line, New York Jets Team Total Points, Jacksonville Jaguars Team Total Points,. First Half and markets, as well as other Props bets for this Week 9 game will be released later in the week, when the Jets announce their starting QB here, possibly second-stringer and less-injured Geno Smith over usual starter and less-injured Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Advanced Line from the Westgate SuperBook here in Las Vegas installed the Jets as 8-point favorites last week (Tuesday) for this game, so you can see how perceptions of the J-E-T-S Jets! Jets! Jets! changed after being humbled in Oakland by the Raiders in Week 8.


Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars (147 PF-207 PA) and 3rd-year Head Coach Gus Bradley (14-21-2 ATS) will be very well-rested here (13 Days), coming in off their Bye week, but this team has been absolutely abysmal on the Road the L5 years, going 5-30 SU and L12 straight away from home with Jacksonville’s last Road coming all the way back in the 2013 at Cleveland against the Browns. In their last game in Week 7, QB Blake Bortles (5-4-1 ATS Road) and Jacksonville (500/1 to win Super Bowl, Paddy Power) upset the Bills in London, 34-31, but this Jaguars team is short on Skill Players for Bortles to get the ball to with only RB TJ Yeldon (101 Rushes, 406 yards, TD), WR Allen Robinson (31 Receptions, 513 yards, 6 TDs, 17.2 ypc) and WR Allen Hurns (31 Receptions, 5 TDs) the team’s real consistent threats right now. S James Sample (Shoulder), TE Clay Harbor (Abdominal), G Zane Beadles (Foot), and  TE Julius Thomas (Groin) are all listed as Questionable for this game. Also, WR Marqise Lee (Hamstring) is Out Indefinitely, and Round 1 Draft Pick Dante Fowler, Jr. (Knee) is out for the season. And five Jaguars are on the Injured-Reserve List including RB Corey Grant (Hip), WR Tony Washington (Hip), G Brandon Linder (Shoulder), WR Rashad Greene (Thumb), T Josh Wells (Thumb) and WR Arrelious Benn (Collarbone).


New York Jets
The New York Jets (172 PF-139 PA) come into this game with some issues at QB with usual starter Ryan Fitzpatrick suffering serious Ligament Damage to his Left Thumb and an MRI on Monday revealing the reality, meaning he’ll need Surgery. But Fitzpatrick is reportedly considering putting that off until the Offseason. For now, he’s listed as Day-to-Day, with taking snaps and handing off the football being the two biggest problems. Jets backup Geno Smith (Shoulder) is also injured and seems more of a liability. So maybe Rookie (Baylor) Bryce Petty sees some time here? New York Head Coach Todd Bowles certainly has his hands full, and it wouldn’t surprise if all three ended up seeing some time in this particular game despite the Jets desire to try to almost “Redshirt” Petty, due to his performances in the preseason. New York (66/1 to win Super Bowl, Ladbrokes) was humbled by the Raiders in Oakland on Sunday, 34-20, and come in off the standard 6 Days of Rest, while the Jaguars are enjoying 13 Days of valuable Rest, and all that time to scheme specifically for this game. The Jets have been effective Rushing the ball thanks in great part to RB Chris Ivory (115 rushes, 518 yards, 4 TDs) and both WR Brandon Marshall and WR Eric Decker (30 Receptions, 393 yards, 5 TDs) have also been productive for the Jets Offense, while the Defense remain in the Top 3 or 4 in the NFL despite the setback in Oakland in Week 8. Besides QBs Fitzpatrick (Thumb) and Smith (Shoulder), WR Brandon Marshall (Toe), RB Bilal Powell (Ankle), S Calvin Pryor (Ankle), C Nick Mangold (Neck) and Rookie (Ohio State) WR Devin Smith (Ankle) are all listed as Questionable for this game for the Jets, while five New York players remain on the I-R List: TE Jace Amaro (Shoulder), TE Zach Sudfeld (Knee), S Antonio Allen (Achilles) and CB Dee Milliner (Wrist).


Series Trends and Realistic Game Expectations
When these two teams last met in 2012, the then Rex Ryan-coached Jets beat and covered ATS against the Jaguars in Jacksonville 17-10 as 2½-point favorites, while the last meeting between the two here at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford was back in 2009, where Jacksonville won outright, 24-22 as 6½-point underdogs. The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS the L5 games here at MetLife against the Jets and 6-2 ATS in the L8 in this series overall. But those were a very different Jets teams, though, both Roster-wise and Mentally. But some of the other Trends are conflicting with the Jets  7-1-1 ATS their L8 against the AFC and 7-2-1 ATS in their L10 games overall but the Jaguars 6-2 in their L8 ATS against the AFC and an impressive 6-2 ATS in the 8 meetings in this series. With just the 6½-point Spread and the 42 Total at CG Technology to work with here—a line should come out at most places hopefully Wednesday or Thursday when the New York QB is announced—it seems the best approach from a side perspective is to back the Jets as they have the better Defense, are at Home and coming off a Loss and intent on getting a Win to stay in the AFC Playoff hunt. Plus, they’re facing the Jaguars and those aforementioned 5 Wins in their L35 Road games. Expect the Jets to try to get the Rushing game going to skirt around their QB injuries to Fitzpatrick and Smith which will possibly be a good thing for a potential Under.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Jets 24 - Jaguars 16
NFL WEEK 9 PICKS: Jets -6 (CG Technology); Under 1st Quarter

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