The NFL Odds for this one favor the road Jaguars by -3, with a total of 40 points. Who will get their first preseason win of 2013, and which team will start the season on a low note?
The Falcons were taken out by the Titans on the road in Week 3, 27-16, and even though Matt Ryan played the entire first half, the Falcons still could not beat the Titans. Ryan finished the first half 11/19 with 138 yards and no touchdowns. His backup Dominique Davis did not look good either, going 7/14 with a touchdown and a pick.
The Jags haven’t looked good in a long time, and that streak continued as they lost to the Eagles in Week 3. Although they played their best game of the preseason so far, they could not overcome some defensive issues in Week 3, and they will look to straighten those out against the Falcons. Gus Bradley was probably not happy with his defense giving up 452 yards of total offense to the Eagles, and you can bet that is the first thing he will want to address with his backups in this game.
This same game happened this exact time last season, and the Jags won the game 24-14. While the Jags did play Blaine Gabbert in that game, he will obviously be out for this one. With backups in for both sides, mistakes and bad offense will likely be the story for this game, and that’s why I think a play on the ‘Under’ makes the most sense in this game for our NFL picks.
While both teams haven’t really been cashing the ‘Under’ with great consistency this preseason, now in Week 4, the scores start to go down with the starters out of the games. The average points scored per game for all of the teams in Week 4 of the preseason last year was just over 18 points, and I can’t see many more than that for these two teams.
Mike Smith has been known for cashing the ‘Under’ in his preseason career, even though this preseason has been an exception to that. However with somewhat of a blueprint coming out of last preseason, I see the ‘Under’ being the best play for these two teams.
What are the Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills up to this Week 4?
The Sharp Pick
For the Falcons, Smith has also never been very good at cashing in Week 4 of the preseason, as he is 1-4 SU in his career. While his team may not be trying to win the game, the Jags might be, and that will only come from their defense. Gus Bradley comes from the Pete Carroll coaching tree, and we have all seen what kind of waste he has laid so far this preseason.
Bradley and Smith will both likely be shuffling guys in and out on both sides of the football, and that will lead to more mistakes and probably less scoring to go along with it.
My Pick: ‘Under’ 40 at William Hill