NFL Picks: Jaguars +10 are a Solid Bet to Cover vs. Shaky Colts in Week 4

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, September 30, 2015 4:46 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 30, 2015 4:46 PM UTC

Colts avoided the dreaded 0-3 SU start by beating the Titans in week 3. Should the public buy what the Colts are selling? Find out as we weigh in on the Jaguars vs. Colts in week 4 NFL betting.

AFC South Up For Grabs
Anybody that says the panic button should not be hit where the Colts are concerned hasn’t been watching their games or paying any attention to the NFL betting landscape. We may be just three games into the season, but the Colts’ 1-2 SU record is already having a serious impact on their postseason upside.

The AFC South looks to be a mess right now with all four teams level 1-2 SU, including the highly-fancied Indianapolis Colts to the chagrin of many NFL bettors who had them down as their choice NFL pick to win the Super Bowl. Of course, it’s not entirely the fault of NFL bettors buying what the odds makers were selling at the time.

The Colts were amongst the top faves (the third or fourth overall faves to win the Super Bowl depending on your sportsbook of choice) and many were loving them up at the betting counter.  Preseason NFL betting markets had the Colts trading at +1000 to win Super Bowl 50 in early NFL betting markets. Then, when Tom Brady’s four-game suspension was levied, the Colts crept up to third overall faves and into triple-digit range, ahead of both the Patriots and Broncos and behind top two favourites Seahawks and Packers.

After shortening on the NFL odds board to triple-digit contenders, the Colts are back into quadruple-ignominy. This time a far flung +1800 NFL pick to win the Super Bowl, trading firmly behind Packers (+350), Patriots (+400), Seahawks (+700), Broncos (+1000), Cardinals (+1200), Bengals (+1500) and Eagles (+1600). How quickly the tables have turned on Andrew Luck. Heck, even postseason flunky Andy Dalton and the Bengals are favoured ahead of the Colts. That’s telling.

Clearly, it’s not taken a long time for this market to go tits up though, which only underscores the relevance of the first three games towards the season proper. So it’s important to not underplay their 1-2 SU record, even in their next matchup with a divisional rival they’ve owned these past few seasons.

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2 SU, 0-1 away)
The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off an embarrassing 51-17 loss to the New England Patriots. A horrific performance that is best forgotten in the locker room and quickly. From a viewer and bettor’s perspective, it’s just one game. Against the big, bad Patriots no less, who are playing with a chip on their shoulder and shredding opponents left and right. It was always going to be ugly, nor could the Jaguars do anything to prevent it.

Past NFL betting trends for the Jaguars in this matchup aren’t exactly encouraging, having lost five straight to the Colts. But the Colts aren’t playing well right now – they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games, including the missed cover as the 3-point road chalk against Titans; speaking of which, it was a very nervy win over another side that they’ve practically been dialled into over the last few seasons and where the public expected a blowout win. Tale told, the Titans had them against the ropes for the better part of three quarters before Andrew Luck rallied the Colts to a come-from-behind 35-33 win.

Indianapolis Colts (1-2 SU, 0-1 home)
In beating the Titans 35-33 have the Colts done enough to appease their fans and NFL bettors to jump back on their bandwagon? It’s our opinion that they haven’t done nearly enough. It came down to the wire against the Titans when Marcus Mariota navigated the Titans into the endzone in the dying minutes of the game. He was a two-point conversion away from sending the game into overtime and putting the Colts under the cosh again, but for the Colts defense to step up and save the day.

On one hand, it was a morale boost the Colts desperately needed, but they can’t be under any illusions about their issues. Their offense isn’t up to par – far cry from last season’s standout level – and their secondary is suspect, amongst other things. There’s just something about them that is seriously off and we’re not certain that one win over the Titans is enough to ignore that niggling feeling.

In any event, the 9-to-10-point spread currently trading on this game is way to overzealous given what we’ve seen from the Colts so far. Obviously, odds makers don’t feel the same otherwise why would they open on 8.5-points. Nor does the public, which has come in hard and heavy on the Colts at early doors with their lovely cash and only gone and pushed the line up to a high of 10-points right now.

NFL Betting Verdict:
Call us crazy if you want to, but we’re fading the public and shading the Jaguars as the 10-point underdogs to cover. Colts may win this game, but the Jaguars could give them a run for their money against the spread.

NFL Picks: Jaguars +10 (-125) at 5Dimes

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