NFL Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars AFC South Division Future Odds

Jordan Sharp

Friday, May 24, 2013 7:53 PM UTC

Friday, May. 24, 2013 7:53 PM UTC

The NFL future odds that are coming out this offseason have not been kind to the Jaguars. Let's see if the Jaguars hold any value to us bettors.

Books with the best prices on 2013-14 NFL Futures

Jacksonville Jaguars divisional future odds update

As I noted in our opening article and video series on Jacksonville, many books like Bet365 have them as the biggest long shot to win the Super Bowl at well over 100/1. In the AFC South divisional future odds, things are much of them same.

While the other three teams in their division are at the very least +700 to even laying money, LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas has the Jaguars as +3000 underdogs to win the AFC South. In other words, you have a better chance of making money playing scratcher tickets at the gas station than you have with the Jags trying to win their division.

Even though the chances of the Jags winning anything more than a few games are slim, and even if they repeat with another horrific season in Northern Florida, I think we can still squeeze some value out of the Jags this season. I think they might be a bit undervalued in their future odds this offseason. They are still going to be bad SU, but they were 7-9 ATS last season, and I think they have a chance at improving the ATS record.

For starters they have a new coach, the former defensive coordinator for the Seahawks, Gus Bradley. After his hire, you knew they were going to solidify one of the worst defenses in the NFL from last season, and they have. Of all the players he Jags have signed and drafted this offseason, over 2/3 of them are on the defensive side of the football, especially in the free agents.

This team is going to definitely improve on one side of the ball, and it remains to be seen if they can do the same on the offensive end of the football. They obviously have one of the better and definitely underappreciated running backs in the NFL in Maurice Jones-Drew. After Jones-Drew, the offensive weapons list drops off considerably. Blaine Gabbert is likely still a while away from being a steady quarterback, and the only chance the Jags will have at winning or staying close in a football game is to play defense and run the football. If they get down early, they are screwed, because Gabbert is not the type of quarterback that can lead you back. The Jags will run the ball, play solid defense and try to win close and gritty football games.

All of this is likely going to make the under very valuable to bettors this season with thier NFL picks on Jacksonville. Last year Jacksonville was 9-7 cashing the under, and that was with a defense that was ranked 22nd against the pass and 30th against the run. With the improvements in personnel and scheme, the Jags will almost certainly be a better defense this season. However with their offense still a mess, and the high turnover of new players, don’t expect the Jags to have much value ATS again this season, unless they can turn it around on both sides of the ball. As it stands now, only one looks any better for Jacksonville.

comment here