NFL Picks: Indianapolis Colts Team Profile 2015

LT Profits Sports Group

Monday, August 3, 2015 6:39 PM UTC

Monday, Aug. 3, 2015 6:39 PM UTC

Each day until the start of the 2015 NFL season, LT Profits will provide a team profile that can be referred to when making NFL picks. Today they look at the Indianapolis Colts.


The 2015 NFL season is set to begin Thursday night, September 10th, but before we get there we will be here presenting daily team profiles in an attempt to assist you with your NFL picks well before Kickoff Weekend. Today we are profiling the Indianapolis Colts, who finished 11-5 in 2014 and in first place in the AFC South before advancing to the AFC Championship Game and losing to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Patriots.

Let us first begin with a summary of the Indianapolis betting statistics over the past five seasons. Please note that all of these stats are for regular season games only.


Indianapolis Colts Betting Stats, 2010 through 2014

   Home  Away  Overall
ATS Overall  23-16-1    20-19-1    43-35-2  
ATS Favorite  14-11-1  10-7-1  24-18-2
ATS Underdog  9-4  10-12  19-16
Avg. Margin  +3.5  -4.2  -0.3
Over – Under  16-24  24-16  40-40
Avg. Total Score    44.6  50.4  47.5


It is a bit surprising that the Colts have a negative AMOV of -0.3 points per game overall, or at least it is until you remember how awful they were in the final year before Andre Luck arrived, the season that Peyton Manning missed due to injury. The Colts have been great bets as home underdogs the last five years at 9-4 ATS, and mark the stark contrast in totals home vs. away, with the ‘under’ going 60 percent in Indianapolis and the ‘over’ 60 percent on the road.
Key Trend: The ‘under’ is 18-5, 78.3 percent in Indianapolis conference home games.

Up next, we examine the Colts’ statistical summary for the 2014 season.


2014 Indianapolis Colts Team Statistics (Per Game)

   Offense    Off. Rank   Defense    Def. Rank 
Points  27.1  6th  23.0  14th
Rushing  99.9  23rd  114.9  19th
Yds. Per Rush    3.9  23rd  4.3  23rd
Passing  297.5  2nd   223.0  10th
Yds Per Pass  7.2  7th  6.4  8th
Total Yards   397.4  3rd  337.9   9th
Yds. Per Play   6.0  9th  5.5  9th


The Colts were rather fortunate last season as they went 11-5 while playing in a weak division and then got to face the Broncos with Manning hiding a torn quadriceps in the Divisional Round of the playoffs before getting routed by the Patriots 45-7 for the AFC Championship.

Moving on, let us take a peek at various Indianapolis Future Odds for this 2015 season from several sportsbooks. You can view these and other future and prop odds on the Sportsbook Review Futures and Prop Bets Directory.


2015 Indianapolis Colts NFL Futures

   5 Dimes  Bookmaker    Bovada  Heritage
Super Bowl Odds    +950  +825  +800  +900
AFC Conf. Odds  +420  +372  +300  +420
AFC South Odds  -420  -450  -400  -450
Win Total  10½ ov-165    10½ ov-170  11 ov-130    10½ ov-160  


The sportsbooks are tabbing the Colts as serious Super Bowl contenders this season despite their weak division as they are the biggest favorite to win their division in the NFL in excess of -400 everywhere, they have the highest posted win total in the AFC with even a juiced ‘over’ on an 11 available at Bovada and they are the close second choice behind New England on the AFC Conference Futures.


Indianapolis Colts Key Additions
And the reason for all of that optimism is that Luck now has some added weapons to play with because of the additions of running back Frank Gore and wide receiver Andre Johnson. And on the other side of the football, Indianapolis may have an easier time rushing the passer with an improved defensive line thanks to the signings of Trent Cole and Kendall Langford. Those two should join Robert Mathis, returning from a torn Achilles, in making the defense stouter.

Indianapolis Colts Key Losses
It would appear on the surface that the Colts lost a lot on offense with the departures of running backs Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson and wide receivers Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks, but Gore is an upgrade over either of the two running backs, Johnson washes out (at least) with Wayne and Nicks was a bust during his time at Indianapolis anyway.

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