Indianapolis Colts season wins future odds update
LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas has the Colts at 8 ½ wins this season, so a year removed from going 11-5 SU, is this number giving us great value, or should we bet on the Colts to regress in 2013? The over would cash at even money if the Colts have a .500 season, while the under is laying -120 on many NFL odds boards.
The Colts have the 30th ranked strength of schedule in the NFL this season based on their opponents’ 2012 winning percentage, and that is only going to help them. The AFC South plays both West divisions this season, and while there are some formidable opponents in those divisions, there are many more bad teams than good.
The Colts play their first two games at home this season, against the Raiders and Dolphins, but then their first half schedule gets tougher. In Weeks 3-7 they have the play the 49ers, Seahawks and Broncos, but lucky for them that two of those three games are at home. At only 8 ½ wins this season, if the Colts can weather the early storm and go at least 4-3 SU before their bye week, I really like their chances of having a winning season. The second half of their schedule is easy as pie, with the only two tough games being on the road in Houston and Cincinnati.
That Week 1 matchup against the Raiders should be a nice tune-up for the rest of their season. It should also be a good tune up game for our NFL picks. I expect the Colts to utilize Darius Heyward-Bay to almost perfection this season along side Reggie Wayne, and the Raiders will be the first to see the new and improved Colts’ offense.
NFL Odds have this game favoring the Colts at -7 with a total of 49 points. The Raiders were definitely in the bottom of the league in defense last season, and the Colts will likely try and take advantage of their secondary early and often. Along with the signing of Ahmad Bradshaw to add to their running game, the Colts are going to be tough to stop. I can’t see the Raiders doing it on the road.
The Sharp Pick
At an even +100, I think the value is there to bet the over with the Colts. 8 ½ wins is not that many for an improved team who went 11-5 SU last season, and has one of the easiest strength of schedules of any NFL team. Obviously they could regress some, but I don’t think they will. If by regress you mean not go 11-5 SU, then I could see it, but I still think nine wins is easy for this team in that division.
The Colts’ defense is also going to be an area of big improvement this season. The Colts could not stop the run to save their lives last season, and they spent the entire offseason beefing up their defensive front, and I think it will pay off big time this season.
My Pick: ‘OVER’ 8 ½ +100 at William Hill
Week 1 Lean: Colts -7