NFL Picks: Indianapolis Colts Season Win Totals & Futures Odds

Nikki Adams

Sunday, May 10, 2015 7:12 PM GMT

Sunday, May. 10, 2015 7:12 PM GMT

Indianapolis Colts Projected Season Win Totals have been released. How do they stack up in the AFC Conference? Find out as we weigh in and analyse their NFL futures odds.

Indianapolis Colts Fourth Overall Faves
There are those NFL bettors that might be surprised by Indianapolis Colts emerging as the fourth overall favorites in NFL odds to win Super Bowl 50 (Table 1). Based on their regular season output, they've made the NFL playoffs consistently since Andrew Luck took over the reins, which warrants such consideration perhaps.  However, that is inasmuch down to a light AFC South division as it is to the undeniable quality of Andrew Luck. A notion supported to a large extent by their failure to get off the mark in the postseason against a more weighted field.

Last season was the first time the Luck-inspired Colts made the AFC Title game after beating the highly favored Denver Broncos in the divisional round. A lot of speculation about Peyton Manning's health at the time did take the shine off their win though. As did their rather miserable loss to the New England Patriots, a 45-7 rout that left a lot to be desired and, incidentally, resulted in the Deflategate Scandal taking life.  

 

Table 1: Super Bowl 50 Odds To Win Outright
(Odds Courtesy of Bet365

Seattle Seahawks +450
Green Bay Packers +650
New England Patriots +800
Indianapolis Colts +1000
Denver Broncos +1200
Dallas Cowboys +1800
Philadelphia Eagles +1800
Baltimore Ravens +2200
Pittsburgh Steelers +2500
Kansas City Chiefs +2800
Arizona Cardinals +2800
Miami Dolphins +2800
Cincinnati Bengals +3000
New York Giants +3000
San Diego Chargers +3300
Detroit Lions +3300
Carolina Panthers +3300
Buffalo Bills +3300
New Orleans Saints +4000
St. Louis Rams +4000
San Francisco 49ers  +4000
Atlanta Falcons +4000
Minnesota Vikings +4000
Chicago Bears +4000
Houston Texans +5000
New York Jets +6600
Cleveland Browns +8000
Washington Redskins +15000
Tennessee Titans +15000
Oakland Raiders +17500
Jacksonville Jaguars +17500

 

2014-2015 In Review
The Indianapolis Colts finished the season with an 11-5-0 SU record, which included a 6-2 SU record at home and a 5-3 SU record on the road. Against divisional opponents, they were a perfect 6-0 SU and against the field in the NFC Conference they went 9-3 SU.

Last year, the Colts entered the AFC South as the team to beat. A market stance that is repeated this season, with the Colts matched at -350 NFL odds to clinch the division (Table 2). In fact, of all the NFL odds currently trading, the Colts are priced the highest of all the favored teams in their respective divisions. If that isn't telling, what is? 

 

Amercan Football Conference Division Odds: 

NFL Conference Division Odds: AFC East

New England Patriots Off the Board
Miami Dolphins Off the Board
Buffalo Bills Off the Board
New York Jets Off the Board

 

NFL Conference Division Odds: AFC North

Baltimore Ravens +163
Cincinnati Bengals +240
Pittsburgh Steelers +200
Cleveland Browns +900

 

NFL Conference Division Odds: AFC South

Indianapolis Colts -350
Houston Texans +350
Tennessee Titans +1400
Jacksonville Jaguars +2200

 

NFL Conference Division Odds: AFC West

Denver Broncos -200
Kansas City Chiefs +425
San Diego Chargers +350
Oakland Raiders +3000

 

Indianapolis Colts Projected Season Win Totals
The undeniable quality of Luck and the rather lightweight AFC South both help lift the Colts into the circle of legitimate contenders. Simply because they are an almost lock NFL pick to make the NFL playoffs out of one of the weakest divisions in the AFC. The chief giveaway is their hefty -350 NFL odds.

Case-and-point, in the three-year reign of Andrew Luck, the Colts have gone 16-2 SU against divisional rivals with the two losses coming in his rookie season: a 22-17 loss to Jacksonville (home) and a 29-17 loss to Houston (road).

In the last two years, they've swept the division with a perfect 6-0. Assuming that NFL betting trend continues (most likely it will unless J.J Watt and the Texans come up with the upset), they're in an enviable position with a theoretical 6-0 SU advantage even before the season gets off the mark. That leaves them with the advantage of needing  to win just 50% of their remaining ten games of the season, to stand a chance to make the playoffs. Last season, they went 10% better with a 5-3 win (60% winning percentage) in the remaining ten games.

It's debatable whether the Colts are truly a strong team in the context of the entire NFL or whether they are simply the sum total of a standout quarterback and a lesser division in the AFC. Nevertheless, having won the AFC South title two years in a row with Andrew Luck at the helm makes them a strong team in principle, prompting a higher, double-digit projection in season win totals betting.

In the race for a third AFC South title, the Colts are chalked at 10.5 wins for the 2015-2016 NFL betting season (Table 3). A smidgen higher than their 9.5 season win total projected last year and that they handily covered behind an 11-5-0 SU record. According to our predictions last year, we picked the Colts to go Over 9.5 (+100) at Bet365, an NFL pick that happily cashed for NFL bettors that backed it. 

Table 3 below highlights the projected win totals for all the teams in the American Football Conference. 

 

American Football Conference Projected Season Win Totals
(Odds Courtesy of WestGate LV Sportsbook)

AFC East Odds: Projected Season Win Totals 

New England Patriots 10.5
Miami Dolphins 9
Buffalo Bills 8.5
New York Jets 7

 

AFC North Odds: Projected Season Win Totals 

Baltimore Ravens 9
Cincinnati Bengals 8.5
Pittsburgh Steelers 8.5
Cleveland Browns 6.5

 

AFC South Odds: Projected Season Win Totals 

Indianapolis Colts 10.5
Houston Texans 8.5
Tennessee Titans 5.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 5.5

 

AFC West Odds: Projected Season Win Totals

Denver Broncos 10
Kansas City Chiefs 8.5
San Diego Chargers 8
Oakland Raiders 5.5

 

As it stands, the Colts are head and shoulders above the rest of the AFC South in these early projections. Only the Texans, the 2012 AFC South champions, appear to have a realistic shot with 8.5 win totals projected. Titans and Jaguars are in rebuild mode still and appear to be a long way away from emerging as legitimate contenders.

To be fair, it's way too early to be making such grand statements. The season is all of four months away and not a lick of football has been played competitively since the end of last season. There's a lot of work to be done in the offseason and a whole slew of things yet to get underway, such as camp, roster decisions and preseason NFL action. Still, they've a long tradition of success in this division in recent years and Luck has carried the torch left by Peyton Manning admirably (Table 4). 

 

AFC Season Win-Loss-Tie Record Last 5 Years

AFC EAST

2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12 2011-12

AVERAGE WIN TOTALS

 

Patriots 12-4-0 12-4-0 12-4-0 13-3-0 14-2-0 12.6
Dolphins 8-8-0 8-8-0 7-9-0 6-10-0 7-9-0 7.2
Bills 9-7-0 6-10-0 6-10-0 6-10-0 4-12-0 6.2
Jets 4-12-0 8-8-0 6-10-0 8-8-0 11-5-0 7.4

AFC NORTH

 

           
Ravens 10-6-0 8-8-0 10-6-0 12-4-0 12-4-0 10.4
Bengals 10-5-1 11-5-0 10-6-0 9-7-0 4-12-0 8.8
Steelers 11-5-0 8-8-0 8-8-0 12-4-0 12-4-0 10.2
Browns 7-9-0 4-12-0 5-11-0 4-12-0 5-11-0 5

AFC SOUTH

 

           
Colts 11-5-0 11-5-0 11-5-0 2-14-0 10-6-0 9
Texans 9-7-0 2-14-0 12-4-0 10-6-0 6-10-0 7.8
Titans 2-14-0 7-9-0 6-10-0 9-7-0 6-10-0 6
Jaguars 3-13-0 4-12-0 2-14-0 5-11-0 8-8-0 4.4

AFC WEST

 

           
Broncos 12-4-0 13-3-0 13-3-0 8-8-0 4-12-0 10
Chiefs 9-7-0 11-5-0 2-14-0 7-9-0 10-6-0 7.8
Chargers 9-7-0 9-7-0 7-9-0 8-8-0 9-7-0 8.4
Raiders 3-13-0 4-12-0 4-12-0 8-8-0 8-8-0 5.4

 

NFL Betting Verdict
Before locking in your NFL pick, note that where the Colts are concerned, their five year results  (Table 4) are contaminated. The last three seasons are all down to Luck while the 2011-2012 season (their worst in recent memory) was thrown off kilter when Peyton Manning got injured and they had to rely on a whole slew of quarterbacks. Summarily, the year prior, their 10-6-0 record was the last account by Peyton Manning.

Over the last five years, the Colts have averaged 9 wins on the season. However, that is largely skewed by the 2011-2012 season. Taking those stats out, their season average is 10.75 wins. Whittling it down to just the 'Luck Years' they emerge with an average of 11 wins per season.

This NFL betting trend puts the Colts just Over the projected 10.5 win totals in NFL betting markets. After we factor in strength of schedule, which is a fortuitous 31st (in other words second easiest schedule) toughest in the league, one would think the Colts would soar well above the 10.5 season wins set by odds makers. The combined win-loss record of their opponents rings in at 106-149-1 last season or a lowly 0.417 winning percentaga.

As if the Colts really needed any help from the schedulers when they already have a straightforward field in the AFC South.

It must be the luck of the draw! No pun intended. 

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