NFL Picks: Indianapolis Colts AFC South Future Odds

Jordan Sharp

Friday, May 24, 2013 3:38 PM GMT

Friday, May. 24, 2013 3:38 PM GMT

The Colts made everyone hold their breath in 2012, as they came out of nowhere to shock the AFC and make it to the playoffs in Andrew Luck’s rookie season.

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Indianapolis Colts divisional future odds update
  

The Colts had some issues, but they had a nice chunk of change to spend on trying to fix it this offseason, and they have addressed almost every need.

Indianapolis comes in as +250 underdogs to win the AFC South this season, as the Texans are much higher NFL Odds favorites to win the division. Last year the Colts were much bigger underdogs for the division crown, and they came within one game of winning the division, and upsetting a lot of bettors AFC South future odds wagers.

The Colts have done a lot of work retooling their 3-4 defense this offseason. They have added two new guys up front to go along with Chris Redding, and they have added some nice depth to a secondary that was basically brand new to the Colts last season. Even though they were once of the worst statistical defenses in the NFL last season, the Colts found a way to win both SU and ATS. It was one of the better runs in the NFL in 2012, and those who joined in I congratulate you.

Indy went 11-5 ATS last season, which was the same as their SU record. The Colts were incredibly undervalued at home last season as well. Indy went 7-1 ATS at home last season, 4-0 ATS as home underdogs, and 5-1 ATS as favorites home or away.

Needless to say, the books aren’t going to get caught off guard like this again. I suspect a lot of sharps took advantage of the Colts being so blatantly undervalued all season at home and both as underdogs and favorites. Indianapolis, much like a team they will forever be compared to, the Redskins, both went 11-5 ATS last season and both will likely be overvalued because of it heading into the 2013 season.

Even though the Colts are a better football team, they have a tough opponent in Houston in that division, and the Skins do not have anything close to that to contend with in the NFC East. All in all, if the Colts are above .500 ATS in any sort of manner in 2013, I am going to be quite surprised.

However there is one trend that the Colts had last season that could almost certainly carry over to 2013, and that is the under. The Colts were 11-6 cashing the under in 2012 including their loan playing game, and with the improved defense and Luck’s tendency for the turnover, I could see the Colts as good under bets in 2013 again.

But overall in these NFL division odds from LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas, 2.5/1 is a little over-inflated in favor of the Colts, and there is little to no value in it for profitable sports picks. The Texans are still a great team in that division, and it will be hard pressed for the Colts to win even 11 games SU again after a year of tape on Luck and the Colts’ offense. The only time they beat Houston last season was when the Texans weren’t really trying because they had wrapped up the division the week before. 

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