NFL Picks: Identifying Early Top Value Odds for Week 9 NFL Picks

Kevin Stott

Monday, November 2, 2015 5:16 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 2, 2015 5:16 PM UTC

Opening Lines for NFL Regular Season Week 9 are out this morning, so let’s see what looks good at first blush on the NFL odds board. Let’s take a look at four Sunday games as well as some free picks.

Sunday, November 8, 2015
St. Louis Rams at Minnesota Vikings -2½, 40½ (at Pinnacle)
(FOX, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST): The St. Louis Rams (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) and sensational Rookie RB Todd Gurley head to the TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis on Sunday to face QB Teddy Bridgewater and the Minnesota Vikings (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) in a big NFC inter-divisional game, and important one for both sides, who will likely be fighting—maybe each other—for Wild Card spots in the NFC in about a month or so. When these two teams last played, the Vikings beat the Rams in Week 1 last season, 34-6 in St. Louis and covered as 3-point Underdogs. The Rams stomped the San Francisco 49ers in St. Louis on Sunday in Week 8 play, 27-6, as Gurley rushed 20 times for 133 yards (6.7 ypc), including a 71-yard TD jaunt that made many on Social Media chirp that “Gurley needs to be the #1 Fantasy Pick in 2016.” Can we get through 2015 first, cuz? I mean, jeez. It’s still technically Week 8. And you still have Halloween Candy. A little slowing of the down seems in order. Anyway, Rams QB Nick Foles (14/23, 191 yards, TD) didn’t have to do to much but he did find Tavon Austin (4 Receptions, 98 yards, 24.5 ypc) for a score, and the St. Louis Defense (Tied for #6 in TO margin, +4) was brilliant as usual. Minnesota is 4-1 ATS the L5 against the Rams, but the Vikings are just 1-4 ATS the L5 here against St. Louis in Minnesota, strangely enough. The Rams could possibly go in here to Minnehaha and pull off the upset with the game meaning so much to them living in the rugged NFC West, fighting the Arizona Cardinals (6-2) and defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks (4-4). Now, that’s motivation. 

Free NFL Pick: Rams +2½ at Pinnacle

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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills -3, 44 (at Pinnacle)
(CBS, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST): The Miami Dolphins (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) head north to Ralph Wilson Stadium in Buffalo next Sunday afternoon to face the host Bills (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) in a massive AFC East meeting for both teams, and what ultimately could be a really tough and possibly season-ending Loss for the losers here. When these two met in this game last season in Buffalo, the Bills rolled to a 29-10 victory in Week 2 as modest 1½-point favorites, while in the game in Miami Gardens last season, the Fish won (and covered) 22-9 as 3½-point chalks. Because of some Geographical realities (Miami is Hot and Buffalo is Cold), the Home teams usually fare really well both SU and ATS in this series, and this influences the NFL odds.The Bills are 4-1 ATS the L5 against Miami in this series, including a 41-14 humbling in Miami Gardens in Week 2 earlier this season. This looks like a great scheduling spot for host Buffalo, and possibly the beginning of a big second-half slide for Miami, who were blasted by the Patriots, 36-7, in Week 8 action after registering Wins over lowly Tennessee and Houston. The Bills come in well-rested (13 Days) off their Bye week after suffering a tough Loss to the Jaguars in Jacksonville, 34-31 in Week 7. Head Coach Rex Ryan looks like he may be starting QB Tyrod Taylor and OT Seantrel Henderson back in the lineup Sunday, according to reports (Monday) and like G John Miller and maybe even WR Sammy Watkins, so, Buffalo could be lying in wait for Miami at Ralph Wilson on Sunday. The Advanced Line had Buffalo as 2½-point favorites.

Free NFL Pick: Bills -3 at Pinnacle

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Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints - No Line
(CBS, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST): The Tennessee Titans (1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS) head to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans on Sunday to face the New Orleans Saints (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) in a Week 9 inter-conference game from Bourbon Street. As far as the (lack of a) Point Spread, the health and availability of Tennessee starting QB Marcus Mariota (Knee, Questionable) is the hold-up here as the Oregon Rookie and #2 overall Pick in the NFL Draft missed his second straight game on Sunday when the Titans lost to the Texans, 20-6 at NRG Stadium in Houston in Week 8 action. Backup Zach Mettenberger (22/31, 171 yards, 0 TDs, 1 Interception, 11.7 QBR) was less than impressive, so expect Titans Head Coach Ken Whisenhunt to try to get Mariota back this weekend, if he’s even close to being ready. When these two last met in 2011, the Saints won 22-17 in Nashville, slightly covering as 3-point favorites 17-22 while in the last meeting here in the Big Easy, the underdog Titans won outright, 31-14 in 2007 as 4½-point underdogs. The Titans are 3-1-1 ATS the L5 meetings with QB Drew Brees and the Saints. Expect the Who Dats to open around 3- to 6-point favorites vs. whomever starts at QB for Tennessee when a line does finally open up. On Sunday, New Orleans scored 52 points and beat the New York Giants in OT at Home, 52-48 as New Orleans QB Drew Brees (40/50, 511 yards, 95.7 QBR) threw for an amazing 7 TDs for the hosts, who now boast the same SU Record (4-4) as the Seattle Seahawks and the Pittsburgh Steelers. There was no Advanced Line here with the status of Mariota in question for Tennessee’s Loss to the Texans on Sunday. A good game to back the Over for your NFL picks, also.

Free NFL Pick: Saints - No Line


Washington Redskins at New England Patriots -13½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
(FOX, NFL RedZone, 1 p.m. EST/10 a.m. PST): The thought here is that this (Point Spread) won’t go down, but will likely go up some like all Patriots games at Home in new England, so laying the lowest number early on the Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) is advised if you plan on backing the favorite here on Sunday afternoon. Patriots QB Tom Brady (70-48-5 ATS at Home)—who has a sparkly 59.3% ATS winning percentage at Home—here against Kirk Cousins and the Washington Redskins (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro on Sunday in this Week 9 inter-conference game. The last time these two teams met was in 2011 when the host Redskins covered by ½ point, getting 7½ points in a 34-27 Loss in Landover while the last meeting here in New England was in 2007 where the then Joe Gibbs-coached Redskins were blown out, 52-7 as 15½-point underdogs. This one could potentially be another big blowout as Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick and Brady (NFL-fastest 2.10 seconds Passing Release Time) continue to pursue the valuable Home-field Advantage in the AFC and maybe an unbeaten Regular Season on the way. They have been down the road before and it’s hard to see who is going to beat this team and when. The Advanced Line here was (New England minus) 12½.

Free NFL Pick: Patriots -13½ (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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