NFL Picks: Identifying Early Sharp-Public Week 14 Sides Line Movement

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, December 8, 2015 8:47 PM GMT

Tuesday, Dec. 8, 2015 8:47 PM GMT

Let’s look at early moves, put theories on the line movement and then make a couple of NFL picks before these numbers rise as it looks many will with still 5 days of betting into these sides markets.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Line Low: Panthers -6½, Dec. 7 (BetOnline)
Current Line: Panthers -7½, (Almost everywhere)
High Line: -8½ +110 (5Dimes)

Analysis
Probably a little Sharp money as well as some Public money on the unbeaten Panthers and MVP-candidate Cam Newton who are an impressive 8-3 ATS and didn’t play a great game, or cover ATS, against the Saints in New Orleans in Sunday in Week 13 play. Just 1 point movement and few gamblers honestly had a crack at this 6½ Point Spread which has 7’s, 7½’s and even an (Panthers minus) 8½ in the marketplace here on Monday night at Offshore operators 5Dimes (+110) and SportBet.com (+113). To me, the money seems like perceived smart money, especially at 6½ and at the Key Number of 7 where a 7-point Carolina Win on Sunday in Charlotte would either Win or Push ATS at those numbers. If this is at 8½ at 5Dimes—often a leader in market direction in the Future—on Monday, expect this to rise both here in Las Vegas and Offshore to maybe as high as 9 in some places as Atlanta and Matt Ryan have L5 straight, are a woeful 4-8 ATS, an abysmal 1-5 ATS the L6 vs. the Panthers and 0-3 ATS the L3 here in Charlotte at Bank of America Stadium. Sold.

NFL Pick: Panthers -7 -120 (Bookmaker)

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Detroit Lions at St. Louis Rams
Line Low: Rams -2½, Dec. 6 (BetOnline)
Current Line: Pick ‘em (Almost everywhere)

Analysis
Early money on the Lions after the way Detroit played against Green Bay on TNF—despite losing on that last-second Hail Mary—and again it seems like perceived Smart Money the way the Rams have been playing. The theory here behind the movement—besides some possible positioning—is that one team (Detroit) has a decent QB (Matthew Stafford), while the other (St. Louis) needs a QB. Only the San Francisco 49ers (178) have scored less points this season than the Rams (189) who seem to have the same wall they same to hit every season right about this time. Detroit also has more Momentum and Confidence than does St. Louis (3-1 ATS L4 in series) right now so expect Stafford, WR Calvin Johnson, WR Golden Tate, Rookie RB Ameer Abdullah and Detroit (4-8 ATS) to be able to put up more points than QB Nick Foles, Rookie RB Todd Gurley and the Offensively anemic Rams (4-7-1 ATS) who are in the throes of a 5-game Losing streak.

NFL Pick: Lions +1 (Heritage)

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Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears
Line Low:: Bears -1 -110 Dec. 6 (BetOnline)
Current Line: Bears -3½ (Pinnacle, 5Dimes)

Analysis
The (Bears minus) 3½ showing at popular Offshore operators 5Dimes and Pinnacle on Monday night are likely a precursor of the Odds movement for this Sunday game at Soldier Field in Chicago as it could pass through that Key Number of 3 in most places and anyone interested in backing the Bears—who lost to the 49ers in Chicago on Sunday in Week 13—might want to try to find them at 3 while it’s still there after the Redskins pathetic Offensive performance in their Loss to the Cowboys at FedExField in Landover, Maryland on Monday Night Football and early bettors—in this case what seems like Sharps for such an obscure game—also are probably aware of how straight up awful QB Kirk Cousins and the Redskins have been on the Road this Regular Season heading in here (0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS).

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San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Line Low:
Chiefs -7½ -110 Dec. 6 (BetOnline)
Current High Line: Chiefs -11½ (5Dimes, Sportbet.com)

Analysis
The Sharps pounded the Chiefs to their delight against the Raiders on Sunday in Week 13 and it looks like this massive move is predominantly Sharp money with possibly a little Public money on upstart Kansas City (7-5 ATS). And with visions of an AFC Wild Card dancing through their heads, QB Alex Smith and Kansas City (4-0 ATS the L4 in this series) will have the Time Zone edge with the beat-up Chargers (3-9 SU, 4-8 ATS) having to travel two Time Zones east (PST to CST) to Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City this Sunday afternoon, meaning that they will be playing at 10 a.m. in their collective Pacific Time Zone Body Clocks. Another favorite backed early in the week and quickly (as always) by the Sharps and it looks like this one will stay above double-digits for good with the 5Dimes and Pinnacle lines possibly a precursor of the direction of the Point Spread these next 5 days. another way of looking at this is that nobody will want to back the Bolts unless it gets to an obscene number like 12½, 13 or more.

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New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line Low: Buccaneers -2½ -110 Dec. 6 (BetOnline)
Current High Line: Buccaneers -4 -110 (Bookmaker)

Analysis
Again, for such an obscure game, the majority of the money flowing into the Buccaneers at -2½, -3 and -3½ just has to be Sharp (Wise Guys, Betting Syndicates) money, with visions of the Saints (4-8 SU, 5-6-1 ATS) porous secondary running through their heads as well as confidence in an improving Tampa Bay Buccaneers team which made it to .500 with Rookie QB Marcus Mariota, WR Mike Evans and WR Vincent Jackson and probably the biggest reason they’re backing the Home team on Sunday—versatile RB Doug Martin. Tampa Bay is now 4-1 ATS the L5 in this series and are 3-1 ATS the L4 at Home at Raymond James Stadium.

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Tennessee Titans at New York Jets
Line Low: Jets -6 -110 Dec. 6 (BetOnline)
Current Line: Jets -7½ (Several sportsbooks)

Analysis
The money has logically come in on New York here with the motivation of a potential AFC Wild Card spot for the Jets (7-5 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) likely part of the reasoning if done by the Sharps who also possibly wanted to get the line at (minus) 7 or below (6, 6½) that Key Number, and also maybe set up a Middling potential at 7 if they are holding 6s or 6½s and want to buy back at 7½ (which they can already do now), or more likely later, hoping there is more Jets money and that the number rises to 8 or maybe even possibly 8½ if there’s enough Steam, although by that point the sharps would probably deem it silly steam and be buying back on Tennessee. The dance continues. In terms of agreeing or disagreeing with this early money and movement, it seems pretty Wise with the Rookie QB Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans just 3-9 SU, 5-7 ATS and a pathetic 8-22-3 ATS in its L33 (37.5%) games overall heading in while the Jets are 7-2 ATS the L9 against the Titans. NFL Pick: Jets -7 -120 (Bovada)

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Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
Line Low:
Packers -5 -110 Dec. 6 (BetOnline)
Current Line: Packers -9 (The Greek)

Analysis
A big move although the 9 showing now is a lone extreme and it’s hard not to think that at least 1 point of this early steam on the packers is mental residue from the perceived confident the Packers will get from the fumes of that miraculous Hail Mary TD pass from Rodgers to Rodgers on Thursday Night Football against the Lions in Detroit which prevented Green Bay (8-4 SU) from being 7-5 as well as the seemingly permanent reality now that America’s Team has to go with backup Matt Cassel at QB with usual starter Tony Romo (Collarbone injury) done for the season. Possibly. Toss in the reality that Dallas is a warm-weather team which plays in Texas and has to go to Green Bay in December and play outside against a team fighting both for a divisional crown (NFC North) and maybe a Wild Card berth. Green Bay is 3-1 ATS the L4 against Dallas. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook NFL Games of the Year had Green Bay open up as 5-point favorites here in the late Spring and the current 7½- to 9-point range will likely have to settle closer to 7 or 10, depending on how both the Sharps and General Public saw in the Cowboys 12-9 Win over the Redskins on Monday Night Football in Landover in a game that truly sent the NFL back 11 years.

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Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
Line Low:
Broncos -6 -110 Dec. 6 (BetOnline)
Current High Line: Broncos -8½ (5Dimes)

Analysis
The early and perceiver Sharp money again here is on the favorites, this time the Broncos and again we see the Point Spread opening up below the Key Number of 7 and then quickly getting pounded up to and past that mark (by Monday night), with possibly a small percentage of those holding Denver -6 and -6½ seeking a potential Middle on 7 or maybe 8 if they’re lucky and the line keeps rising as it should against a now done, done, done Raiders side. The reasoning possibly? The Broncos are good both SU and ATS (10-2 SU, 8-3-1 ATS), are at Home at Sports Authority Field in Denver, have a QB in Brock Osweiler who at least gives them the mobility and hope this team needs right now with 39-year-old veteran Peyton Manning both ailing and old, and are still fighting for AFC Home-field Advantage. Plus, that Defense and the Oakland Raiders (5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS) are a dismal 0-7-1 ATS the L8 against the Broncos.

NFL Pick: Broncos -7 -120 (Bet365)

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NFL WEEK 14 EARLY LINE MOVEMENT PICKS: Panthers -7 -120 over Falcons (Bookmaker), Lions +1 over Rams (Heritage), Jets -7 -120 over Titans (Bovada), Broncos -7 -120 over Raiders (bet365)

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