NFL Picks - Identifying Early Sharp-Public Action In Week 2

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, September 13, 2016 2:37 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 13, 2016 2:37 PM UTC

The Wiseguys came out throwing money at the New York Jets, New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens late Sunday night and early Monday morning. Let’s analyze those three NFL Week 2 games and see if we can build on (so far) 18-8 Regular Season ATS Record with a couple of more chalky Early Line Movement NFL picks.

Thursday, September 15, 2016

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Line Openers:
 Bills -3 -105, 42½, Sunday 8:04 p.m. EDT at 5Dimes
Current Lines: Pick ‘Em, 40½, Monday, 7:14 p.m. at 5Dimes

We start off NFL Week 2 with a monster 3-point line move—from BUF -3 to PK—in the first 15 hours this (Side) number was in the marketplace, no doubt from heavy money from Sharps with probably a little Public money sprinkled in late with early bettors both Offshore and in Las Vegas backing the New York Jets over the host Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football, sparked by what they saw in Week 1 on the gridiron then lit ablaze by the news that Bills WR Sammy Watkins’ Foot—which required Offseason surgery—may be worse than the team first thought, although the talented Florida State product is downplaying the severity of his his condition, saying on Monday that he will be playing here against the Jets in this big early season AFC East showdown with both Empire State teams off to 0-1 starts after losing on Sunday in a freaky NFL Regular Season Week 1 where all the games but the Browns-Eagles were relatively close. 

But despite his comments, other reports suggest that Watkins (60 receptions, 1,047 yards, 9 TDs in 2015) may be shut down by Buffalo brass if they feel the pain is an issue, meaning no matter what he says, management will decide if he goes against Gang Green here on TNF or if he is shelved. The skinny for us bettors is that the idea of getting the Jets and a point or three is a ship which has sailed...and sailed quickly in less than 24 hours thanks in great part to professional gamblers. Get ‘em guys.

And those same Wiseguys did what they always do with (most) NFL Totals at Open: They bet the Under heavily—especially at the extremely popular sportsbook 5Dimes, which is currently offering a 50% Free Play Bonus (up to $520) —with the Total (Points) there going down 2 points quickly from 42½ (8:16 p.m. EDT, Sunday) to 40½ (11:24 a.m., Monday) in a span of fewer than 15 hours. So, if you are ever intent on getting the best number or seriously betting NFL Totals, best open some offshore accounts and plan on staying up late, late, late on Sunday nights, as 42½, 42 and 41½ have only been hooked by the early Totals usual. 

So with the sharps and others gobbling up all the good numbers late Sunday night and early Monday morning like the Jets +3, Jets +2 and Jets +1, spots which might have been recommended here as well as the Under at 42½, it’s best to probably just lay off here and watch Buffalo with or without Watkins at Home at Ralph Wilson Stadium against rival New York, although with the Trends (BUF 5-0 ATS L5 vs. NYJ, 3-0 ATS L3 at Home) and the 3 points of value earned Monday (and maybe a point more from Tuesday to Thursday), there seems to be some perceived value with the Bills but these are two desperate 0-1 teams in fear of a 0-2. Especially their Head Coaches, Rex Ryan (8-8-1 ATS) and Todd Bowles (9-6-2 ATS). No pick here now. Stay away. 

Free NFL Pick: no pick here

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Sunday, September 18, 2016

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
Line Openers: Patriots -5½, 42½, Monday 9:51 a.m. EDT at 5Dimes
Current Lines: Patriots -7½ +120, 41, Monday 5:34 p.m. EDT at 5Dimes

We can see a heavy Sharp move on New England here with a 2-point line jump at 5Dimes, often a harbinger of latter-week line movement both Offshore and in Las Vegas. (Note: The Money Line for New England opened at -245 and was at -300 by 5:34 p.m. EDT Monday.) And it seems this early week steam for the Patriots was born from the way Eastern Illinois University-product Jimmy Garoppolo as well as New England played in beating the Cardinals in Arizona in the Sunday Night Football season lidlifter—Arizona Head Coach Bruce Arians was 15-0 against Non-Conference opponents at Home heading in—along with the reality that this is the Home opener at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro for the beloved Patriots who are playing the first four games without usual starting QB Tom Brady (Suspended) if you just got back from Mars after a four-year voyage to the Red Planet. 

And even though the Dolphins looked very good against the Seahawks in Seattle on Sunday afternoon in Week 1, the Confidence that New England had to get from seeing Garoppolo finally get his shot and to shine—24/33, 264 yards, TD, 106.1 QBR—as well as new additions WR Chris Hogan (3 receptions, 60 yards, TD) and TE Martellus Bennett along with the Rushing performance of RB LeGarrette Blount (22 rushes, 70 yards, TD) and the dynamic Receiving performance of gutty WR Julian Edelman (7 receptions in 7 targets, 66 yards, 9.4 ypc, 3 1st Downs) has to make the two missing injured starting OL, starting All Pros QB Tom Brady and TE Rob Gronkowski feel pretty darn good about this season’s Roster, along with 17th-year Head Coach and resident genius Bill Belichick (160-121-7 ATS) who has proven to be pretty darn good at winning us bettors some money through the years. Thanks Bill.

So with the Site, a look at the Trends (NE 5-1 ATS L6 vs MIA at Home) and a gander at last year’s Final Score in this scheduling spot (@NE 36-7, NE -8), it’s easy to recommend taking the Patriots over QB Ryan Tannehill (14-18 ATS on Road) and the Dolphins  who will have to be a little tired after flying from Miami to Seattle—about as far as one can go in the NFL—for Week 1 and then having to trek up to New England. For now (Monday night), the prices backing the Patriots are a little bit better here in Sin City than they are Offshore although there is one -6 (Catalina) currently showing. This one—in which you can see Sharps pounded the Total down 1½-point from its opening 42½ to its current 41—should be a double-digit, semi-blowout on the last Sunday in Summer with Miami making mistakes.

Free NFL Pick: Patriots -6 -110 
Best Line Offered: at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

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Sunday, September 18, 2016

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Line Openers: Ravens -6, 43½, Sunday 8:10 p.m. EDT at 5Dimes 
Current Line: Ravens -7½ +115, 43 Monday 5:29 p.m. at 5Dimes

Probably mostly Sharp money here (fading the Browns) but also probably around 15-20% astute General Public action here (backing the Ravens) in NFL Week 2 in the first 24 hours since this Point Spread came out with the big news being that Cleveland (400/1 to win Super Bowl, at BetOnline) would be going with 37-year-old backup QB Josh McCown here after one-week starter Robert Griffin III was put on the Injured Reserved List on Monday with a Shoulder Injury. Expected. So backing the upstart Ravens (42/1 to win Super Bowl, at Bovada) and Joe Flacco (19-24-4 ATS vs. AFC North) in this spot is a no-brainer with the Ravens a sweet 7-1 ATS the L8 here in Cleveland Browns with last year’s Final Scoreline reading here at FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland reading: BAL 33 CLE 27 (BAL -6). With the AFC North so damn rugged this season, the Ravens will have to win both games against the Browns and even with this being the Home opener, backing Baltimore early is the logical Rx here on Sunday afternoon as the lowly Browns (5-10-1 ATS in 2015) were 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS against the AFC North last season. (Laying) anything under a TD seems like a gift and the taking Baltimore (early) is the solid week 2 Ravens vs. Browns pick here on Sunday afternoon. Fade rats. 


Free NFL Pick: Ravens -6½ -110 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker


NFL Week 2 Early Line Movers Picks: Patriots -6 -110 at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, Ravens -6½ -110 at Bookmaker
2016 NFL Picks ATS Record: 18-8-0
2016 Regular Season Week 1 ATS Record: 10-3 (into MNF Game 2)

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