NFL Picks: Hunting for Potential Early Value in Week 11

Jordan Sharp

Monday, November 16, 2015 8:03 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 16, 2015 8:03 PM UTC

It is always a good idea to look through the NFL Odds early in the week to search for value. With more NFL Odds to choose from this week, here a few that could bring some value to your NFL Picks. 

Cowboys vs. Dolphins
You can read more about this in my opening odds article, but the crux of my argument for this game is the NFL odds for this one are trying to trap Cowboys fans attempting to take advantage of the fact that Tony Romo will likely be back this week. With this info in mind, and with the knowledge that the Cowboys have been horrible without Romo, the NFL odds for this one are essentially a PK, and Cowboys fans might be jumping in.

However, the sportsbooks might know it’s a square play. While Dallas’ problems revolve around not having Tony Romo for the last eight weeks, they have deeper issues than just not having Romo. Dallas’ defense is average at best, ranking 17th in total defense, and while Dez Bryant has come back, and is slowly looking like the old Dez, the Dallas run game has been even worse than the defense.

This week against a team like Miami, who is trying to fight their way back into the playoff discussion in the AFC, Dallas might be a fade. I could easily see these NFL Odds moving to -2 or even -3 in favor of the Dolphins as the week progresses. Dallas has played only one other non-conference game this season, and they lost it ATS. I see them making it 0-2 after this week.

Packers vs. Vikings
If you’ve watched the Packers play over the last three weeks, this might seem pretty outlandish. However, while Green Bay does look a little broken right now, this might be their best and possibly only chance to break their three-game slide. Green Bay’s struggles over the last three weeks might be gone once they realize they are playing for the division this week. Green Bay is now a game back of the Vikings heading into this critical matchup in Minnesota, however, a loss this week would potentially doom the Packers from winning the division. They do play the Vikings in the final week of the season at home, but if they lose this week, and drop another winnable game along the way to Week 17, Minnesota might be too out of reach.

Outside of their thrilling tie at the end of the 2013 season, the Packers have dominated the series between the Packers and Vikings over the last five years. Green Bay is 4-0-1 in their last five games against the Vikings, and overall they’ve covered as favorites in three of their last five games against them. This is the first time they have played this season, and it obviously isn’t great because they have played so badly, but my gut is telling me the Packers look good to break out of their slump this week, in case you want to consider them for your NFL picks.

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