NFL Picks: Huge Gap in Offensive & Defensive Lines Warrant a Play on Bills vs. Titans Week 5

Ross Benjamin

Monday, October 5, 2015 3:14 PM GMT

Our NFL capper provides us with an early betting preview on Sunday’s upcoming game between the Bills & Titans. Check out our in depth analysis and free NFL Pick.

Our professional NFL consultant provides us with an early betting preview on Sunday’s upcoming game between the Bills and Titans. Join us in reading this very compelling piece which concludes with his point spread pick.

 

Bills invade “The Music City”
The Titans (1-2) and Bills (2-2) will square off this coming Sunday in a battle of AFC combatants. The opening kickoff at LP Field in Nashville is slated for 1:00 PM ET. This will be the first meeting between these teams since 2012.  Tennessee has defeated Buffalo five consecutive times dating back to 2003. That head to head history and quarter will buy you a loaf of bread. According to current (10/5) NFL betting odds, Buffalo is either a 2.5 or 3.0 point favorite, and the posted total is 42.5.

 

Scheduling Quirk
This will mark the third time in the Bills first five games that they’ll be facing an opponent playing with some sort of rest. The Patriots and Giants were both coming off Thursday night games when they played Buffalo, and both contests ended up in a Bills loss. The Titans will enter Sunday’s game coming off their bye week.

 

NFL ATS History favors Buffalo
Buffalo is coming off an extremely disappointing 24-10 loss as a 6.5 point home favorite to the Giants. Tennessee was a 35-33 loser in their last game against Indianapolis. Any NFL non-division road favorite of 4.0 or less (Bills), coming off a home favorite straight up loss by 12 points or more, versus an opponent (Titans) coming off a loss, resulted in that away favorite going 11-0 SU&ATS since 1995. The away favorite won those eleven contests by an average of 11.6 points per game.

 

Bills Penalties
Buffalo has been undisciplined in both of their losses thus far. In their 40-32 home loss to New England, they were penalized 14 times for 140 yards, and this past Sunday they were called for 17 infractions that resulted in 130 yards of losses. They lead the entire NFL with 47 accepted penalties against them, and Oakland is a distant second with 38. You can make the case that the Bills worst enemy thus far has been themselves. Quite frankly their lack of discipline has become border line embarrassing, and especially the numerous 15 yard unsportsmanlike penalties they’ve been whistled for.

 

False Start for Titans
The Tennessee Titans opened the season with a convincing 42-14 blowout win at Tampa Bay, and then proceeded to lose their next two game to Cleveland and Tennessee. It certainly lends itself to a bit of déjà vu for Titans fans. Last season their team opened the year with an impressive road win at Kansas City, and then went on to lose 13 of their next 14 games to finish at 2-14 for the season. That’s not to suggest that this Titans team is about to embark on a similar path, but it’s a legitimate mental aspect they’ll need to overcome.

 

Final Analysis
Using contrarian logic pertaining to Buffalo’s lack of discipline in their two losses, both those defeats came at home, and clearly they’ve been a bit too amped up at Ralph Wilson Stadium. Going on the road may be just what the doctor ordered for Buffalo. In their lone road game this year they destroyed Miami 41-14. During that win, they had only 5 accepted penalties against them for only 40 yards. Case in point, they’ve committed 42 penalties for 388 yards in three home games.

Marcus Mariota has lived up to his billing as a #2 overall pick in the 2015 NFL draft. In his first three career starts, he’s passed for 833 yards, 8 touchdowns, and only has been intercepted twice. However, he’s also been sacked 12 times. This will be unequivocally the best defense line (Buffalo) that Mariota will have faced thus far, and is a very similar scheme that he witnessed against Cleveland. During that contest, the Browns sacked Mariota 7 times.

I’m going to lay the small number for one of my NFL picks this week.

NFL Pick: Play on Buffalo -2.5 (+100) at BetOnline