NFL Picks: How To Approach Super Bowl 50 Proposition Bets

Nikki Adams

Thursday, January 28, 2016 9:31 PM GMT

Proposition bets (Props) provide added thrills and angles for profit, making them extremely popular amongst sports bettors. Here we look at how NFL bettors are to find value in Super Bowl 50 props for their NFL picks.

Boundless Super Bowl 50 Props Across Sports Betting Platforms
Odds makers run the gamut with proposition bets covering all aspects of the game, from main props to score props, team props, player props, and those that cover all else and verge on the wacky and ridiculous and, even, much, much more. The potential bets available to avid NFL bettors is endless, certain to maximise their Super Bowl 50 betting thrills.

What makes prop betting most enjoyable is the uncertainty surrounding it. There’s no (or very little) statistical analysis that can be used to whittle down the probability of a winning bet, no research to be done, no empirical theory to hang your hat on. What statistical analysis could you possibly use to determine which quarter is going to be the highest scoring quarter, for instance? To predict what the first offensive play of the game is going to be? How many sacks or penalties will be recorded when all is said and done?

When delving into some of the more personal prop bets the foundations are even flimsier. What possible statistic is available for NFL bettors to use towards predicting how many times Cam Newton dabs? How many jump celebrations he’ll enjoy? Whether Von Miller dabs after sacking Cam Newton? Although that’s one prop that kinda feels it’s got a very real possibility. (Oh, what the hey, put us down for the YES on our NFL picks).

On the other side of the coin, you’ll find prop bets on how many times Peyton Manning calls Omaha? How many overthrows he’ll have in the game? Has any statistician or researcher diligently counted the amount of times Peyton Manning calls Omaha during a game on average?

As for the wacky and ridiculous prop bets that are currently trading, some of which are totally hilarious, most are completely and utterly unquantifiable. To give you an example, betting on whether Peyton Manning retires after Super Bowl 50 to become a rapper with his brother Eli? [Cue: laughter].Odds Peyton Manning announces his retirement with a poem (that one gave us a bit of a chuckle). How about the odds Manning embarks on a movie career following retirement? How do you research for that one?

For Cam Newton, the proposition bets are equally random – such as, Over-Under NFL odds for time on screen with a smile. Over-Under odds for how many towels around his body at one time. Will he be wearing a Superman T-shirt under his gear?

 

How To Approach Super Bowl 50 Prop Bets
Clearly, sportsbooks are churning out proposition bets with abandon but the reality is they are not all profitable. There is a lack of research and sensibility at times with the various prop bets available on the sports betting floor. The intention is to entertain and NFL bettors will be either carried away by the absurdity or fun aspect of a particular prop, prompting at the best of times a rather impulsive bet. Indeed, sportsbooks are relying on such vagaries.

The trick to maximising your profits therefore in proposition betting markets is to be selective with the props and your bets, use common sense where possible and avoid the absolute ridiculous and wacky prop bets, no matter how tempting it is (or how alluring the maximum bet allowed by the sportsbook in question on any particular proposition is – often the min-max range of bet allowed can be the impetus for a foolhardy prop bet).

The trick is simple: make a smart choice and not an impulsive choice. Take your time and find the props that make most sense to you and that you can perhaps research and quantify either way. Importantly, wager only what you can afford. Don’t go crazy. Sportsbooks are going to make a lot of money over the next couple of weeks on Super Bowl 50 betting, so there’s no sense to throw water into the ocean with senseless NFL picks on random prop bets.