Houston Texans season wins future odds update
LVH Sportsbook in Las Vegas has the Texans handicapped at an even 10 wins this season, but the over is chalked up to -130, with the under coming in at +110. Can the 12-4 Texans from a year ago show up once again this season, or will they fall this season in an improved AFC South?
The AFC South may be an improved division, but they are still not very good. This is one of the reasons why the Texans have the 27th ranked strength of schedule in the NFL this season. With the exception of their two games against the 49ers and Seahawks, the Texans will be favored in every other game before their bye week. If they play well to start the season, they could end up 5-2 SU or better before their Week 8 bye. After the bye week, the annual two games against Indianapolis, along with games against New England and Denver will be there only contested games of the second half. As long as the Texans beat who they're supposed to, they are going to get at least 11 wins this season.
Houston opens up their NFL season by concluding Week 1 on Monday Night Football, and the NFL odds favor the Texans at -3, -2 ½ and even -1 ½ at Will Hill. I see the line closing somewhere around -2 in a few short months, while the total currently sits at 47 points. San Diego is under new leadership, and there are advantages and disadvantages for the Texans in this spot. They are used to the Norv Turner led Chargers, who is now leading the offense in Cleveland. San Diego is 4-0 both SU and ATS in the last four times these two have met since 2002. Houston was 3-3 ATS last season as road favorites, and the under cashed in four of those six games.
The Sharp Pick
Even though -130 on the NFL odds boards is a little bit of chalk for a bet like this, I feel confident enough in the Houston Texans ability to get 11 wins this season in such a bad division. Even though Tennessee will be much better, and the fact that the Texans have to play four teams with new head coaches this season, Houston is one of the better teams in the AFC.
Their defense is still going to be very good this season, especially if Ed Reed is ready to play come the preseason. They drafted DeAndre Hopkins to play opposite of Andre Johnson, and if the two aforementioned guys can play at the level they are needed, the Texans could very well be another challenger to the Patriots and Broncos for the AFC crown. Either way, ten wins without the half attached to it is giving us some unexpected value with an over wager on the Texans in the season wins for our NFL picks. I think 11 is quite reasonable for a 12-4 team that got better this offseason.
My Pick: Over 10 -130
Week 1 Lean: UNDER 47